According to David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, Wisconsin’s third congressional district — in the southwest of the state and the only competitive House district — is breaking toward Republicans. The Report has reclassified the race as “Likely R” from the previous “Lean R.”
Wasserman writes:
Democratic state Sen. Brad Pfaff and Center Forward PAC have hammered retired Navy SEAL Derrick Van Orden for taking part in January 6 protests. But Van Orden stockpiled enough cash to beat Pfaff to the airwaves by over a month with ads attempting to soften his image as a plaid-clad, inflation-fighting grandpa. This rural, Trump +5 seat has been trending away from Democrats, and the trend line in the Senate race doesn’t help Pfaff either. The DCCC hasn’t spent a dime here.
NEW @CookPolitical: 10 House rating changes this week, including four Dem incumbents from Lean D to Toss Up and two – #AKAL Mary Peltola (D) and #KS03 Sharice Davids (D) – from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis: https://t.co/QxOmHybgEl pic.twitter.com/tFYim1sNT6
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 25, 2022
With Ron Kind (D., Wis.) deigning not to run for reelection, the race has the Trumpy former SEAL Derrick Van Orden taking on an agriculture bureaucrat in Brad Pfaff. Currently a state senator, Pfaff “led the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture Trade and Consumer Protection, advocating for farmers’ mental health, increased market opportunities for farmers, and rural prosperity through broadband, healthcare, and education,” according to his campaign website.
A Van Orden victory would mean a 6-2 advantage for House Republicans from Wisconsin, with Democrats almost certainly retaining their grip on Madison’s and Milwaukee’s districts.