Jonathan Chait says that while Bush and Kerry are tied, it’s Kerry who has the momentum. That’s hard to argue with. I’m not sure that Democrats are as far ahead on voter registration as he thinks, or ahead at all. But in two respects, I think Chait may actually be selling the case that Kerry is winning short. He writes, “Kerry is highly gaffe-prone. Roughly once a week he utters a statement–global test, terrorism as a nuisance–that plays right into his opponent’s hands and forces him to explain himself. Any day, he could utter a gaffe big enough to change the dynamics of the campaign.” I’ve been a bit surprised that Kerry hasn’t made a gaffe that big all year. Also, Chait ignores one dog that won’t bark. Remember how much we heard in September about how the press would eventually boost Kerry just because it needed a new storyline? Somehow I don’t think that the Bush comeback is a storyline the press is going to find itself needing. P.S. I still think Bush wins the electoral vote.