This conversation is drawn from today’s Editors podcast.
Rich Lowry: Charlie, just for fun, what would be your level of confidence that if Ron DeSantis were the nominee this time around for Republicans and Biden is the Democratic nominee, what would be your level of confidence that DeSantis would beat Biden from zero to ten?
Charlie Cooke: I would say that it would be a toss-up 50–50. I’ve written before that I think that Trump will lose, but that Biden is the frontrunner and the favorite. Nevertheless, that could change if we have a recession or if something bad and public and undeniable happens to Joe Biden that really does highlight his age in a way that is illustrative. But I think that there is a lot of baggage still around the GOP that will in part remain irrespective of the nominee, and I think DeSantis would go into it about 50–50.
Lowry: MBD?
Michael Brendan Dougherty: I think I agree with Charlie. Maybe I give DeSantis just a little bit more of a weighted coin in a coin toss. You know, maybe he’s at 52 to 48 because of youth and just the polls on Biden’s age are just so bad that I just think a lot of independent voters would very quickly habituate themselves to a competent-seeming young candidate.
Lowry: Phil?
Phil Klein: I’m gonna go higher. I’m gonna say 65 percent chance. And the reason why–
Cooke: DeSantis wins?
Klein: Yes. And I would be just a little more optimistic that the youth issue is going to play a bigger role in that, because I think that Biden’s gonna continue to decline. And I think that last time he benefited from the fact that he was able to use Covid as an excuse to not have to stress himself that much, but DeSantis — say what you want about him, you know, we’ve criticized him as a candidate — but he’s a hard worker, and he won’t be out-hustled by Joe Biden. He’ll be in multiple events a day, criss-crossing the country, and Biden will look half-dead. And honestly, I just don’t see how, when you’re talking about swing voters at the end of the day, I just don’t really see people voting for Biden. I mean, obviously they could for all of the reasons outlined, but I think that we underestimate how much of a factor it would be to see a younger candidate against Biden.
Lowry: Yeah, I agree with Phil. I think they’ve done a pretty good number on DeSantis already. I think there’s some polls of the general public that have DeSantis’s favorable/unfavorable ratings really suffering the last couple of months. But just the contrast on age alone, I think, would be pretty big. Biden is just really, really weak. The numbers are horrid. It’s hard to beat any incumbent. But I’m going to say it’d be a 60 percent chance that Ron DeSantis would beat Joe Biden in 2024.