One talking point in the debate over the Graham-Cassidy health-care bill is that it would systematically discriminate against Democratic states and in favor of Republican ones. Rand Paul told reporters on Tuesday that his colleagues are “taking the Obamacare money, keeping it, and taking it from Democratic states and giving it to Republican states.” That’s not quite accurate.
Three analyses of the bill, from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Avalere, and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, have found that the change in federal health-care funding would be negative for states that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. Among those states are Republican strongholds Arizona, Louisiana, Arkansas, Ohio, and Kentucky. The states that would benefit from the bill are states that did not expand Medicaid, which makes sense given its funding formula. To be sure, most of those states tend to vote Republican, but Paul asserted a cut-and-dry reality that is not the case.