Here (h/t rcp):
While Giuliani leads on the Republican side the big movement is Mitt Romney’s. He gained 5 points in a month – more than doubling his support – to 11 percent. McCain has to be concerned about slipping 4 points, to 22 percent.
One also notes the durability of Newt Gingrich, who maintains his third-place position despite his saying he won’t decide until Labor Day whether he’ll get in the race. He’s spent a lot of time in Iowa, and many Republicans like his ideas….
All of which makes organization more important to the outcome. Both Romney and McCain operatives have been working hard and have developed the best machinery here in the early going.
Giuliani’s behind in doing that and hasn’t campaigned in Iowa but he has hired former Congressman Jim Nussle to help make repairs. With George Pataki almost out as a contender, Giuliani is in a position to rally what’s left of Republican moderates. Since the social conservatives will be splitting their votes among several candidates, Giuliani could do well just by getting the support of Republicans who aren’t so rabid about things like abortion or homosexuality.