One of the big stories of the midterms was Ron DeSantis’s domination of the Florida Latino vote. As I wrote yesterday:
Notably, DeSantis’s statewide performance with Florida Latinos was not confined to traditionally Republican-friendly demographics such as Cubans. He carried Puerto Ricans — generally a much bluer voter bloc — by double digits, besting Democrat Charlie Crist’s showing by 13 points. Florida’s Latino vote, while generally skewing Democratic, has long been more Republican than its counterparts in other states owing to its large Cuban population: In 2018, DeSantis carried 44 percent of the Latino vote — ten points behind his Democratic opponent, Andrew Gillum, but still a larger margin than the GOP’s typical national showing of about a third. In 2022, however, DeSantis won 58 percent of the Latino vote, blowing Crist out of the water with 68 percent of Cubans, 56 percent of Puerto Ricans, and 53 percent of all other Latino demographics combined.
But things get even more interesting — and encouraging for Republicans — when you drill down into more granular detail. The Cuban vote in Florida — generally about a third of the state’s Hispanic electorate — was traditionally seen as more Republican-friendly than other Latino demographics. While that’s true, there were also worrying trends for Republicans in the 2010s. From 2008 to 2018, the Cuban vote was actually trending left: In a 2014 post, titled “After decades of GOP support, Cubans shifting toward the Democratic Party,” Pew Research noted that in Florida — home to seven in ten “of the nation’s 2 million Cuban-origin Hispanics” — “George W. Bush won 78% of the Cuban vote” in 2004, “compared with 56% of the state’s Hispanics overall.” In 2008, John McCain carried 62 percent of Florida’s Cuban vote, in contrast to Obama’s 38 percent showing. But by “the 2012 presidential election, the Cuban vote in Florida was split—49% supported Democrat Barack Obama while 47% supported Republican Mitt Romney, according to the national exit poll.” That showing — “a full ten points above the previous high water mark (reached by Obama in 2008) by a Democratic politician” with the demographic, the Miami Herald reported — was driven by the leftward movement of younger Cubans. “Over half (56%) of Cubans ages 18 to 49 identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party compared with 39% of those 50 years and older,” Pew wrote in its 2014 report. “Conversely, older Cubans tend to identify with or lean toward the Republican Party more than younger Cubans, by 44% to 23%.”
But in 2016, Florida’s Cubans began to shift back to the GOP, albeit in fits and starts. Trump still heavily underperformed Bush’s 2004 margins, but exit polls showed him besting Hillary Clinton by double digits, 54 to 41 percent. (Florida’s non-Cuban Latino population, on the other hand, went for Clinton over Trump by a margin of 71 to 26). Two years later, Ron DeSantis blew his Democratic opponent Andrew Gillum out of the water, taking 70 percent of the Cuban vote to Gillum’s 29 percent. According to New York Times exit polls, Trump carried 58 percent of Cuban Floridians in the 2020 election, whereas Biden won just 41 percent. In 2022, DeSantis dominated with the voting bloc again, carrying 69 percent of Cuban voters to his Democratic challenger’s 30 percent.
The most notable reason for this swing is that it appears to be driven by a rightward movement among young Cubans. An August 2016 poll from Florida International University (FIU) had Trump beating Clinton among Cubans statewide by roughly five points. (Exit polls for Cuban Floridians by age aren’t available in some cycles.) But among Cubans between the ages of 18 and 39, Clinton was polling ahead of Trump by 22 points. In the 2018 FIU exit poll of Cuban voters that showed DeSantis beating Gillum by 45 points, the same 18–39 age demographic went for DeSantis over Gillum by four points, 51 to 47 percent. In 2020 — again, where exit polls of Cubans by age aren’t available — an August FIU poll of Cuban Floridians ages 18–39 found that 59 percent backed Trump, whereas just 23 percent backed Biden. And an FIU poll conducted around the same time in the leadup to the 2022 election found that 59 percent of the same demographic planned to vote for Ron DeSantis, whereas Democratic contenders Nikki Fried and Charlie Crist — the nomination hadn’t been decided yet — each earned just 12 percent apiece.
The leftward trend among Florida’s Cuban population in the early 2010s was primarily driven by younger Cubans. Now, the demographic’s return to the GOP appears to be driven by voters of the same age group.