Remember that Congressional Budget Office estimate that the Democrats’ health-care plan would cost more than $1 trillion over ten years? It helped arrest the Obama administration’s momentum and forced lots of difficult questions out into the open on Capitol Hill. For that reason, it was widely attacked as an exaggeration by the rhetorical fish-mongers around Washington.
Actually, writes Stephen Parente for the Manhattan Institute, the CBO cost estimate is way too low — more than $1 trillion too low — because of a rosy assumption:
The discrepancies between our estimates and CBO’s stem from our different assumptions about a key issue. The Democratic plans envision a government-run insurance program, modeled after Medicare, that will compete with private insurers. How many people would opt for coverage under this public insurance? We believe that both large and small employers would have powerful incentives to shift their employees out of private coverage and into the public plan. Like the Urban Institute, we estimate that roughly 40 million people would make the shift. CBO seems to assume, however, that large employers would use the public plan only sparingly and that only 11 million people would move from private to public insurance—which would, of course, result in lower costs.
Why the difference in these estimates? We believe that we have better data on this issue than the CBO, which uses simulation models of health-insurance plans based on much older health-plan data—typically from 2001 or even 2000. Our estimates are grounded in 2006 commercial-insurance data to which the CBO doesn’t have access (the data are not publicly available and the CBO didn’t make provisions to purchase them). These data reflect the advent of much cheaper, high-deductible health plans and limited-provider network plans. If the government modeled its public option on these inexpensive plans, the result would be cheap enough to lure far more people away from private health insurance than the CBO estimates.
Our model has a good track record. The last time government introduced a major health-insurance innovation was 2004, which saw the introduction of Health Savings Accounts. We used the same model to predict that 3 million people would adopt these HSAs by the beginning of 2006. Our estimate, which we published in the peer-reviewed journal Health Affairs, was spot-on, predicting the market response more accurately than most other models, which produced adoption-rate estimates at least one-third lower.