This is how the hard-Left firedoglake website is viewing he current count (it seems about as good as anyone’s):
Raw totals on the flip:
178 Republicans, including Joseph Cao (R-LA), who voted Yes in November. He’s in the Stupak bloc.
20 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Dennis Kucinich, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler.
5 Democrats who voted Yes in November (confirmed Stupak bloc):
Bart Stupak, Marion Berry, Dan Lipinski, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly.
17 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:
6 lean Yes:
Jason Altmire, Bart Gordon, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Four), Scott Murphy, Betsy Markey
Glenn Nye, John Tanner, Suzanne Kosmas, John Adler, Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson, Harry Teague.
4 less possible:
Travis Childers, John Barrow, Allen Boyd, Rick Boucher.
20 potential Yes-No flip votes:
5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
Steve Driehaus, Brad Ellsworth, Marcy Kaptur, Jerry Costello, Henry Cuellar.
15 other wary Democrats:
Mike Arcuri, Zack Space, Chris Carney, Mike Doyle, Paul Kanjorski (lean yes), Ann Kirkpatrick, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Dan Maffei, Bill Owens, Baron Hill, Solomon Ortiz, Gabrielle Giffords, Earl Pomeroy, Tim Bishop.
Democrats need 25 of a combination of the 17 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 20 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 25 out of the remaining uncommitted 37.