I have my annual predictions for 2010 coming out in the CBC newsletter very soon–which I will link here. One of my predictions, already written, is the passage of Obamacare, without the public option but with some form of non profit national private insurance exchange. It looks like I may be right already–at least on the Senate side. From the story:
Democratic senators say they have a tentative deal to drop a government-run insurance option from health care legislation. No further details were immediately available. But liberals and moderates have been discussing an alternative, including a private insurance arrangement to be supervised by the federal agency that oversees the system through which lawmakers purchase coverage. Additionally, talks centered on opening up Medicare to uninsured Americans beginning at age 55, a significant expansion of the large government health care program that currently serves the over-65 population. Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa told reporters he didn’t like the agreement but would support it to the hilt in an attempt to pass health care legislation.
If they do that, it will pass.