Magazine November 2, 2020, Issue

Will Trump Win Pennsylvania?

Voters in Philadelphia cast their ballots in Pennsylvania’s primary election on June 2. (Jessica Kourkounis/Getty Images)
Voter-registration numbers indicate his standing

The best indicator of the Trump campaign’s standing in Penn­syl­vania is the voter-registration numbers.

In November 2016, Pennsylvania had 4.2 million registered Democrats, 3.3 million registered Republicans, and 1.2 million registered with “other parties” or none.

By June 2020, Pennsylvania had 4.09 million registered Democrats, 3.29 registered Republicans, and 1.21 million registered with other parties. Then the parties began their post-primary voter-registration drives — and Republicans added a net 135,619 voters between June and the final week of September, while Democrats added 57,985 and other voters increased by 49,995, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report calculates. Add it all

This article appears as “Battlefield Pennsylvania” in the November 2, 2020, print edition of National Review.

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In This Issue

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The Week

The Week

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Another Pollster Sees a Trump Win

The Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly is an outlier among pollsters in that he thinks President Trump will carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, or both, and hence be reelected with roughly 280 electoral votes. (I explained his thinking here.) Last week another pollster, Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research, ... Read More

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Law & the Courts

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