Media Blog

Harry Reid vs. Rasmussen

Harry Reid is not happy with the Rasmussen poll showing him down 11 percent to Sharron Angle:

Reid faces Tea Party activist Sharron Angle (R) in November, and has had somewhat of a resurrection in the polls. A Mason-Dixon poll in January showed Reid losing to Angle by 5 points, but more recent polls show the race about even. Reid dismissed a Rasmussen poll this week that showed Angle up by 11 points, saying the poll “shows how valid the Rasumussen poll is.”

Rasmussen’s numbers speak for themselves: he’s consistently one of the more accurate pollsters out there. Here are his results from 2008, 2006 (Senate and governors) and 2004.

Consider the races Nevada: in 2008 Rasmussen’s final poll had Obama over McCain, 55–43. The vote went for Obama, 50–46. (Rasmussen can hardly be accused of skewing Republican there). In the 2006 Nevada governor’s race, the final poll had Gibbons over Titus, 48–44. The election result was Gibbons, 48–46. And in the 2004 presidential race, the final poll had Bush over Kerry, 50–48. The vote tally was Bush, 49–47.

One of the digs lately against Rasmussen is that his 2008 polls are showing a Republican house effect that wasn’t there in other years. Nate Silver has what I think is a fair look at Rasmussen and this development.  I assume this is what Chuck Todd is referring to when he calls Rasmussen “unreliable.” The bottom line is we won’t know the answer until November, but if Rasmussen’s past performance is any indication, Harry Reid is in deep trouble. And I think Reid knows it.

Most Popular


NATO’s Challenge Is Germany, Not America

During the recent NATO summit meeting, a rumbustious Donald Trump tore off a thin scab of niceties to reveal a deep and old NATO wound — one that has predated Trump by nearly 30 years and goes back to the end of the Cold War. In an era when the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact are now ancient history, ... Read More
White House

The President’s Do-Over

I agree with Jonah on all counts: On net, President Trump’s do-over of his Helsinki remarks is a good thing; regrettably, it is not sincere; and while I hope the revised version is the one he sticks to, I don’t have confidence that will be the case -- as posited in my column Tuesday on the folly of having the ... Read More