‘We’ve done over 185,000 voter contacts and the abortion issue has been brought up about six times,’ GOP candidate Colin Schmitt told NR.
Monroe, N.Y. — When Pat Ryan won the special election for New York’s 19th congressional district in August, Democrats touted the win as a sign that the anticipated red wave this November may not come to be.
“There are 222 seats in the House that are better in terms of the Biden vote than New York 19,” Sean Patrick Maloney, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told Politico after Ryan defeated Dutchess County executive Marc Molinaro. “That is the canary in the coal mine for what’s coming.”
Democrats held up Ryan’s win as evidence that abortion would be a defining issue in November, after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June.
Colin Schmitt, a two-term Republican state assemblyman who is running against Ryan in the newly redrawn 18th congressional district, argues that is simply not true; voters are concerned about inflation and the economy.
“The main issues are economy, public safety, and the border crisis,” Schmitt told National Review. “That is what voters care about. We’ve done over 185,000 voter contacts and the abortion issue has been brought up about six times.”
“People cannot afford to live here,” he said. “They cannot afford the basic necessities. That’s what’s driving the day.”
Schmitt’s anecdotal evidence, drawn from his upstate district, seems to be mirrored in national polling. While abortion surged as a top-of-mind issue for voters in the wake of Dobbs, it has flagged in recent weeks, especially among independent women. High-profile Democrats, including President Joe Biden himself, have responded by beating the abortion drum even louder. Biden delivered a speech Tuesday in which he announced he would make codifying Roe his top legislative priority should Democrats hold the House and Senate in November. He’ll also be discussing the issue on the campaign trail in the coming weeks.
Unlike other Republicans in competitive races, Schmitt isn’t shying away from the issue, pointing out that despite the Democratic talking points, it’s Ryan who holds “extreme positions on abortion,” supporting partial-birth abortion up to the moment of birth.
When the pair clashed over the issue at a “meet the candidates” event last month, Ryan accused Schmitt of mischaracterizing his position on abortion. The Democrat said he wanted only to go back to the standard set by Roe v. Wade, which established a constitutional right to abortion nationwide, preventing states from imposing meaningful restrictions on the procedure.
Asked about what limits on abortion he supports, Schmitt told National Review he is pro-life and supports a “commonsense, compassionate approach,” before adding that abortion is a state’s issue and not an issue for federal lawmakers.
The concern he most often hears about on the campaign trail is the economy, he said, with residents unable to afford groceries, gas, and utilities as they head into the cold winter months.
Residents in the district are also concerned about public safety.
In 2019, New York State passed a bail reform law that listed qualifying offenses for which judges could set bail and hold a defendant in jail. A number of crimes were excluded from the list, including residential burglaries, nearly all felony drug cases, and cases in which the defendant was charged with unarmed robbery while committing the crime with the help of another person.
The 2019 law and its later amendments did not allow the judge to factor in the defendant’s likelihood of reoffending or the risk to public safety when determining release conditions.
An August 2022 report from the Manhattan Institute found that by March 15, 2020, just two and a half months after the law went into effect, crime had risen 20.05 percent in New York City over the same period year-to-date in 2019, including a 26.5 percent increase in burglaries, 33.9 percent increase in robberies, 22.9 percent increase in shooting incidents, and 68 percent increase in car theft. Only murder and rape decreased, both crimes for which judges were still able to set bail.
“We’ve had shootings, we’ve had repeat offenders released without bail, people who are domestic abusers who should be behind bars are released within minutes to reoffend against their intimate partner,” Schmitt said, noting that he had sponsored a bill in the state assembly to repeal the law.
Schmitt pointed to planes suspected of carrying migrants that have landed in Orange County as another cause for concern.
Molinaro, who is now running in the regular election for NY-19, had unsuccessfully campaigned on the state’s criminal-justice policies, including its cash bail law, as well as the economy.
The race between Schmitt and Ryan has been designated “lean Democrat” by the Cook Political Report and a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics. A Ryan campaign internal poll obtained by Politico earlier this month showed the Democrat leading Schmitt 47 percent to 40 percent. An August internal poll found Schmitt leading 45 percent to 41 percent.
National groups have poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into the race; the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, has spent $1.14 million supporting Schmitt. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent $433,000 on backing Ryan.
The newly redrawn district, which is a mix of farmland and medium-sized cities, is home to a number of workers who commute into New York City, as well as a burgeoning Latino population.
The Monroe-based American Latino Coalition held an event on Tuesday announcing the launch of its “Latinos for Schmitt” coalition.
Schmitt said Latino-owned and -operated businesses are one of the fastest-growing segments of businesses in the district. The coalition will coordinate events, with Schmitt planning to visit Latino churches, tour Latino-owned businesses, and speak to local civic organizations.
“Latino voters have the same issues that we all have in the community,” he said, adding that they want to know they can work and live their lives in the Hudson Valley, have a say in their children’s education, know that the border is secure, and know there’s an end to the fentanyl crisis.
Rubén Estrada, the chairman and founder of the American Latino Coalition, said Latinos “naturally, inherently are conservatives,” adding that he has been a Republican all his life and when he was growing up in Spanish Harlem, it “wasn’t an oxymoron to have a Puerto Rican Republican.”
“But things have changed,” he told National Review. “It’s gotten so bad that people are galvanized now. Latinos have said, ‘No, we need a voice.'”
The Republican Party is increasingly winning support from Latinos because they’re “tired,” he said.
“You’re talking about folks that come from countries where they left communism, they left socialism, they escaped — to allow this country to turn that way, we can’t do it.”
Estrada hosted the event on Tuesday at his food truck, Empanada Masters. He said his customers talk to him about their concerns about “woke” issues in schools and wanting to be able to provide for their families.
He has known Schmitt since the assemblyman was just 14 years old and attending coalition meetings, back when the group was still called the Latino National Republican Coalition of New York. Schmitt’s early interest in politics led him to join the staff of then assemblywoman Annie Rabbitt while he was still in high school. He became the youngest aide ever hired by the New York State Assembly.
Estrada suggested it’s time for the district to elect a home-grown candidate, with Schmitt having grown up in Orange County. “He’s the one,” he said.