Molinaro told NR that voter concerns about crime and inflation make this a ‘much different race’ than the one he ran over the summer.
Marc Molinaro said there’s no “magic” answer for why he lost the special election for New York’s 19th congressional district in August, but he remains hopeful that there is a brighter Election Day ahead.
Molinaro lost to Democrat Pat Ryan in the special election to fill the seat vacated by Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado just two months ago — but now the district’s lines have been redrawn and Ryan has chosen to run in the neighboring 18th congressional district. Molinaro will now face off against political newcomer Josh Riley, who previously worked under former congressman Maurice Hinchey and Senators Ted Kennedy and Al Franken.
“It’s not like we’re running to lose,” Molinaro told National Review. “We have to save the state of New York and there has to be a commitment to common sense, real relief from high costs and getting government to respect the people it serves.”
“This is a much different race and in a marginally different district than August,” he added. “The midterm elections are really often a question as to whether or not you think America is better off today than it was yesterday. And I’m wanting to convince people that we can be a much better place tomorrow.”
When Ryan won the special election for New York’s 19th congressional district in August, Democrats touted the win as a sign that the anticipated red wave this November may not come to be.
“There are 222 seats in the House that are better in terms of the Biden vote than New York 19,” Sean Patrick Maloney, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told Politico after Ryan defeated Dutchess County executive Marc Molinaro. “That is the canary in the coal mine for what’s coming.”
Democrats held up Ryan’s win as evidence that abortion would be a defining issue in November, after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June.
Asked if abortion was a major factor in the special election, Molinaro said “I don’t pretend to be a pundit. The abortion issue, in August, without question, motivated a good number of voters and as I always say, people ask me how’d I lose that special election and I just answer it honestly: the other guy got more votes. It’s not like some magic mix to this.”
He added, however, that voters who were energized by the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization understand that abortion law in New York isn’t going to change.
Molinaro said he does not support a national abortion ban and accused Riley of lying about Molinaro’s position on abortion to frighten people.
“I don’t believe that Congress now has the authority to impose its will on states. The right to access will remain in New York,” he said. “And I think that fundamentally our job now is to ensure that women, regardless of the choice they make, have access to quality care, both prenatal and neonatal care, that those who choose to bring life with a disability into the world . . . and those that choose to have an abortion need to be assured that they have the love and support of not only their family and community, but of their government.”
“Certainly, for some voters, it remains an important issue that they intend to vote on,” he said of abortion. “But overwhelmingly, people are truly anxious about the cost of living and concerned about crime.”
After traversing the district — which now covers nearly 200 miles stretching from Ithaca to the Massachusetts border and no longer includes Dutchess County, where Molinaro has served as county executive since 2011 — he says “without question” voters’ top concerns are cost of living and crime.
“It is frightening and it is anxious and it’s a time where people just want relief and they want their government working for them,” he said, explaining that he grew up on food stamps and can empathize with voters’ financial struggles.
While much attention is paid to crime in big cities it has infected smaller communities as well, he said, arguing that “law enforcement in New York is just disincentivized to do their job.”
In 2019, New York State passed a bail-reform law that listed qualifying offenses for which judges could set bail and hold a defendant in jail. A number of crimes were excluded from the list, including residential burglaries, nearly all felony drug cases, and cases in which the defendant was charged with unarmed robbery while committing the crime with the help of another person.
The 2019 law and its later amendments did not allow the judge to factor in the defendant’s likelihood of reoffending or the risk to public safety when determining release conditions.
The newly redrawn NY-19 is an area where upstate meets downstate New York. “It’s a part of the state that, frankly, has had government and businesses turn their back on them and they know what it’s like to be overlooked,” Molinaro said.
Manufacturing and industry was widespread in the area 30 to 40 years ago but businesses were forced out by high taxes and energy costs. When some companies moved south, employees and their families followed. New York State leads the nation in population loss.
The Cook Political Report and Politico both have the race in NY-19 listed as a “toss up.” President Joe Biden would have won the district in 2020 by 5 percentage points, according to Politico.
National groups have poured nearly $8 million into the race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, feeling hopeful after Molinaro’s special election loss, has spent $2.2 million on the race. The Republican Congressional Leadership Fund Super PAC has spent $3.6 million on the race.
An early October poll by Siena College found Riley leading Molinaro 46 percent to 41 percent.
Molinaro, who first got his start in politics when he became the mayor of the village of Tivoli at 19 years old, hopes to get Congress on board with several initiatives he started as Dutchess County executive. He said his proudest accomplishments have been that the county built a comprehensive community-based mental-health and drug treatment. The county’s stabilization center and mental-health community-based model is now the model New York State is replicating more broadly.
“It is a way of confronting the challenges of mental illness, and confronting what is the public-health crisis of our lifetime, opioid addiction, the opioid epidemic,” he said, adding it is something he believes Republicans and Democrats should work toward achieving in Congress.
He said he would like to also implement the county’s “ThinkDIFFERENTLY” initiative on a nationwide level. The initiative represents a commitment to provide access and support to those living with physical, intellectual and developmental disabilities. Molinaro called the way the U.S. treats individuals with disabilities “criminal.”