President Joe Biden is catching up to former president Donald Trump’s polling lead as the 2024 election draws nearer, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday.
Though the incumbent remains behind his opponent by one point, Biden virtually closed the five-point gap between him and Trump that from a month ago, just before both candidates became their respective parties’ presumptive nominees. In March, Trump had a 48 percent to 43 percent lead; the latest poll finds Trump at 46 percent and Biden at 45 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
Trump also remains the candidate with the higher favorability rating of the two — 43 percent compared to Biden’s 41 percent.
Still, Biden appears to be gaining traction among his 2020 supporters. Of those who voted for Biden four years ago, 89 percent said they would vote for him now, compared to 83 percent who said the same in the previous Times/Siena poll. By contrast, Trump has 94 percent support from his 2020 supporters, though that is a drop from 97 percent in March.
While the Democratic nominee has been losing support from black and Latino voters, the Times reported Biden has started making gains on the two key demographics. Notably, his support among those registered voters is not as high as it was in 2020.
Age continues to be a major concern for the Biden campaign ahead of the general election in November. The survey found that 69 percent of registered voters say Biden, 81, is too old to be an effective president, with 48 percent strongly agreeing with that statement. Meanwhile, 41 percent think Trump, 77, is too old, with 21 percent strongly concurring.
The economy and immigration also pose significant threats to the Biden campaign — two issues that voters prefer Trump to handle. Sixty-four percent approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, whereas 63 percent disapproved of Biden’s handling of the economy. And exactly half of voters approved of Trump’s handling of immigration, while 64 percent disapproved of Biden’s border policies.
The newest poll results are indicative of a close Trump–Biden rematch this fall. The outcome of the presidential election is expected to come down to several swing states, most of which are leaning more towards Trump.
According to a recent poll conducted by the Wall Street Journal, a plurality of voters in six key battleground states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — said they would vote for Trump on a hypothetical ballot that includes third-party and independent candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Wisconsin was the only swing state to be surveyed that saw Biden lead Trump; however, that lead shrunk to a tie when the hypothetical ballot was narrowed to a two-man race.