While Democrats historically outperform Republicans in early voting, this year the partisan gap in looking especially wide.
With one week to go before Election Day, candidates are trying to land final punches in last-minute campaign ads, but millions of voters have already cast their ballots and millions more are slated to vote before next Tuesday.
Across the country, more Americans have voted early than ever before in a midterm election cycle. Thirty two million votes have been cast nationwide, NBC News reports, with registered Democrats making up 47 percent of the share — besting Republicans by 12 points.
While Democrats historically outperform Republicans in early voting, this year the partisan spread in early voting is wider than it was in 2022, the last midterm year, and, in some states, is outpacing 2018, when Democrats flipped 43 House seats.
Both the Republican and Democratic camps have encouraged their voters to vote early. Trump, who has previously been skeptical of early and mail-in voting, has asked his supporters to “swamp the Vote” so that his predicted Republican victory will be “too big to rig.”
The explosion of early voting comes after months of historic midterm spending. Total cycle spending is projected to reach a record 11.6 billion dollars by election day, according to AdImpact.
Early voter data from across the country — and in battleground states — shows that Republicans aren’t “swamping the vote” just yet, but are actually getting swamped by Democrats.
In Maine, early voting turnout among Democrats is outpacing 2022 levels, the last midterm cycle, by 1 point while Republicans trail their 2022 turnout by 3 points. That trend — an energized Democratic Party and depressed Republican Party — can be seen consistently across the country.
Georgia has received over 1.8 million ballots as of October 26; Democrats account for 46 percent of ballots cast so far, compared to 37 percent by Republicans. In 2022, when now-Senator Raphael Warnock defeated Republican Herschel Walker, Democrats made up 40 percent of early and mail-in ballots, compared to 41 percent by Republicans.
Iowa’s early voting returns are 22 percent higher today than during the 2022 midterms. Democrats lead returned ballots by 17 points. With another week of early voting, the state has already received 83 percent of all early and mail-in votes in 2022.
Republican Ashley Hinson is neck and neck with Democrat Josh Turek in the latest polls for the state’s open Senate seat.
In North Carolina, Democratic ballots make up 42 percent of votes cast so far, surpassing the Democratic share in 2022 and matching the 2018 midterm share around the same time.
Former Democratic governor Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 9 points in recent polls to assume the vacant seat held by retiring senator Thom Tillis.
“There are scenarios in which this isn’t great news for the Democratic Party, but there’s no scenario in which this is good news for the Republican Party,” Christopher Cooper, a professor of political science at Western Carolina University, told me.
Cooper expects the partisan ballot gap to close when voters take to the polls November 3, as Republican voters are less likely to vote early. But it might be too late for the GOP to hold onto the Senate seat.
Rather than serving as a definitive predictor of the final vote tally on November 3, the early voting disparity between Democratic and Republican ballots is a better gauge of voter enthusiasm — a factor that could determine the outcome in lower-turnout midterm elections, according to John Alford of Rice University, who studies elections and voting behavior.
In a state like Texas where Trump won by double digits in 2024, but Republicans are on their back foot, such an enthusiasm gap in the early voting period could make up that ground.
In Texas, 4.5 million voters have already cast ballots early, outpacing the turnout level at this time in 2022 by 1.5 million votes. The 4.5 million voters who voted early, Alford notes, are no longer persuadable, and although backers of Talarico and Paxton are spending “like a drunken sailor,” Alford told me, any hits between now and election day are unlikely to make a dent or be “cost-effective.”
It’s not just battleground states experiencing increased early voting. Conventionally safe Republican states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska are experiencing historic levels of participation as polls tighten.
In Kansas — where Trump won by 16 points in 2024 — early voting is more than double what it was during the last midterm cycle in 2022. The Senate contest between Republican incumbent Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton has tightened in recent weeks, prompting multiple visits from Trump and Vance.
President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance have been jet-setting across the country in recent weeks, stumping for Republican candidates in federal races and statewide gubernatorial races. The pair will not let up, according to a near-daily announcement of new stops in the final days of the campaign season.
J.D. Vance’s Monday appearances included rallies in Montana and Kansas; Trump jetted to a rally for incumbent GOP senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in Corinth, Mississippi, Monday evening. Trump won Mississippi by 23 points in 2024.
Trump is headlining a rally in Corpus Christi, Texas, today, as J.D. Vance’s heads to Michigan to stump for Mike Rogers and Michigan Republican candidates.