The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense now believes it is “highly likely” that Ukraine has recaptured swaths of territories lost to Russia in 2014.
The eastward advance marks “one of the first instances since Russia’s February 2022 invasion that Ukrainian forces have highly likely recaptured an area of territory occupied by Russia since 2014,” the Ministry’s intelligence briefing on Tuesday noted.
Ukrainian forces have sought to exploit the events of the weekend, which saw Russia descend into momentary chaos as Yevgeny Prigozhin led his mercenary force, the Wagner Group, on a march to Moscow, catching President Vladimir Putin off guard.
On Saturday, Ukrainian forces retook the town of Krasnohorivka, just outside of the eastern city of Donetsk, as political leaders acknowledged the embattled nation was in the midst of a massive counter-offensive.
“Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the BBC last week, commenting on the broader counter-offensive underway. “What’s at stake is people’s lives,” the leader added. “We will advance on the battlefield the way we deem best.”
However, the offensive has been bogged down by minefields laid by the Russian army. “Everything is mined, everywhere,” Lieutenant Ashot Arutiunian told the New York Times.
“They dug in, they mined, they are ready,” another private with a paramilitary unit told the Times on conditions of anonymity. “It is difficult, but there is no other option.”
Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of Ukrainian forces across the southern frontlines, confirmed that troops were “moving forward.”
“There are already liberated territories and our movement continues,” the high-ranking military official told the BBC without specifying locations.
On Saturday, Wagner Group units had taken control of vast parts of southern Russia, leading Putin to denounce the move as a “stab in the back” to “our county and our people.”
“We are fighting for the lives and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence, for the right to remain Russia, a state with a thousand-year history,” Putin said after news of the takeover of Ronstov-on-Don was publicized. “All those who deliberately stepped on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed insurrection, who took the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, will answer both to the law and to our people.”
However, Prigozhin’s forces stopped outside of Moscow as negotiations with Putin and Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko resulted a last-minute deal averting further fighting.
The agreement, Lukashenko insisted, would prevent “a bloodbath on the territory of Russia,” adding that the deal is “absolutely advantageous and acceptable” for Wagner.
Prigozhin confirmed the arrangement in an audio statement released on Saturday night, confirming that mercenary forces were “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
Prigozhin issued a statement Monday for the first time since the group paused its march. In the eleven-minute video message, Prigozhin argued that the military operation highlighted “serious security problems across our country,” but sought to distance the Wagner Group from accusations that the action constituted a coup.
“It was never our goal to overthrow the current regime and legally-elected government,” Prigozhin said, according to a translation by an intelligence monitoring account, OSINT Defender.
The militia commander emphasized that he turned his troops back toward Ukraine before engaging with any Russian troops. “We turned around in order not to shed the blood of Russian soldiers,” he said.