Just 8 percent of likely swing state voters say abortion is a top issue for them going into the midterms, despite Democrats’ assertions that the reversal of Roe v. Wade will turn out voters to the polls, according to a new Cygnal poll commissioned by the Republican State Leadership Committee.
Meanwhile, 37 percent of respondents said high cost of living and inflation are their top concern, according to the poll, which was conducted on June 25 and 26 among likely general election voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Washington and Wisconsin.
Sixteen percent cited the economy in general as the most important issue, while 9 percent said crime is their biggest priority.
Just 30 percent of likely voters said a candidate’s position on abortion is the absolute most important issue to them, the poll found. Sixty-five percent said there are other issues that are a higher priority when choosing who to support in November.
Forty-nine percent of likely voters said they would be willing to vote for a candidate who has a different view from them on abortion as long as they agree with them on most other issues. Thirty-seven percent said they would be unwilling to support such a candidate. Of those unwilling to support a candidate with different views on abortion, 35 percent are Republicans.
The poll also did not show a shift in support toward Democrats; Republican state legislative candidates lead on the generic ballot 47 percent to 45 percent. A similar poll conducted in January found Republican state legislative candidates led Democratic candidates 48 percent to 42 percent.
Forty-eight percent of respondents in the June poll said they would prefer a Republican candidate who would act as a check and balance on President Biden, while 44 percent said they would prefer a Democratic candidate who would support Biden.
For his part, the president’s approval rating remains dismal: 41 percent have a favorable view of Biden, while 57 percent have an unfavorable view. The January poll found 44 percent had a favorable view of Biden, while 54 percent had an unfavorable view.
Seventy-four percent of likely voters now believe the country is on the wrong track. Just 23 percent believe it is on the right track.
A memo to state legislative candidates and elected officials from RSLC president Dee Duncan explains that state Republicans are “in a strong position ahead of November because they have expanded their leads when it comes to which party voters trust to handle key economic issues.”
Fifty-three percent of respondents said they trust state Republicans to handle the economy in general, while just 38 percent said the same of Democrats. Voters also trust state Republicans to handle high cost of living/ inflation 51 percent to 39 percent.
Duncan wrote that the poll “is another reminder that what you see on Twitter and in the press doesn’t necessarily capture reality when it comes to voter behavior.”
“A little more than four months from Election Day, the political environment is still a disaster for state Democrats, state Republicans have a commanding lead on what is far and away the most important issue to voters, and the issues state Democrats are trying to exploit to distract from Biden’s failing economy are not going to be salient enough to save them come November,” he wrote.
He added that Republicans “shouldn’t expect to see an end to the Democrat corporate media joint campaign to make abortion the ‘game changer‘ of the 2022 midterms.”
The poll was conducted among 2,007 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 percent.