McCarthy Allies Say Steve Scalise Has Clearest Path to Speakership, but Point to Concerns about His Health

With the House speakership hanging in limbo after Kevin McCarthy’s ouster Monday evening, allies of the former speaker say House Majority Leader Steve Scalise currently has the clearest path to the speakership as he continues to gauge support for his newly announced bid.

But the race is early, and there is widespread concern among different House GOP factions about his health, House GOP sources tell National Review, with a host of House Republican sources cautioning that Scalise’s blood cancer diagnosis is causing many McCarthy allies to keep their powder dry, even if his health issues aren’t necessarily disqualifying.

Scalise, who also previously served as House GOP Whip, said in a Dear Colleague letter that he is running for speaker to “mend the deep wounds that exist within our Conference.”

In addition to his cancer diagnosis, Scalise was injured in a shooting at the Congressional baseball practice in 2017. He underwent several surgeries in the aftermath to address injuries sustained in the attack.

But those close to him are playing down concerns about his health.

“No one is more protective of his health than his wife Jennifer and his doctors, all of whom agree that he is more than healthy enough for this challenge,” a source familiar with Scalise’s thinking tells National Review. “Additionally, what was originally expected to be a 6 or more month long chemotherapy treatment when he was first diagnosed in August is expected to condense to just three months given how well his body responded to the treatments over the last 6 weeks.”

Even those who think Scalise is the rightful successor to McCarthy concede that the competition for the speaker’s gavel will likely be stiff. Scalise’s Wednesday afternoon entry into the race makes him the second declared speaker candidate, with House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan confirming to reporters earlier Wednesday that he is also seeking the gavel. Republican Study Chairman Kevin Hern is also reportedly making calls to gauge his support for an expected run.

House GOP staffers caution that they expect the fight to get ugly. There is widespread uncertainty about who has what it takes to win over the rightmost flank of the GOP, let alone all of the swing seat members and McCarthy allies who are still in shock that eight House Republicans sided with House Democrats to depose the top GOP leader from his post. 

The chaos doesn’t end there. Whoever becomes the next speaker is operating under the understanding that every faction of the House GOP is looking to extract concessions in exchange for a speaker’s vote. This could look similar to the deal McCarthy struck with the rightmost flank of his conference back in January to secure his gavel. Many of those members are expected to push for more border security, preserving the single-member threshold for the motion to vacate the chair, a serious cutback in federal spending, and no more U.S. funding to Ukraine amid Russia’s unprovoked invasion. 

Meanwhile McCarthy allies, particularly frontline members who are running tough reelection races during a presidential cycle, are strategizing ways to extract concessions from the new speaker, and reject the narrative that a small cohort of ultra-conservative members should have a chokehold on rest of the conference. 

There are early discussions among formerly McCarthy-aligned members to push a rules change that would increase the threshold for the motion to vacate the chair from just one member, largely to avoid empowering individual members with the ability to introduce ouster resolutions on the floor whenever they please.

“The ability for one person to vacate the Speaker of the House will keep a chokehold on this body through 2024,” the Republican Main Street Caucus wrote in a Wednesday statement. “Personal politics should never again be used to trump the will of 96% of House conservatives. Any candidate for Speaker must explain to us how what happened on Tuesday will never happen again.”

Florida Representative Matt Gaetz (R., Fla.), who introduced the motion to vacate resolution earlier this week, is still public enemy number one among the vast majority of former House Republicans. And even though many members are currently dreaming about kicking him out of the House GOP conference for his ouster resolution, there’s an understanding that punishing him for his actions may only make him a martyr and give him fundraising fodder as he continues to tease a prospective bid for Florida governor.

But McCarthy-aligned House Republicans’ ire doesn’t end with Gaetz. Sources tell National Review that whatever goodwill and respect there previously existed on the right side of the aisle of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus has all but evaporated after caucus Democrats opted to follow their party leader’s call to side with eight House Republicans to oust McCarthy. Sources say a confrontation between Republican leaders on the Problem Solvers Caucus and their Democratic colleagues could come soon.