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Elections

Most Accurate 2016 Poll Shows Biden, Warren, Sanders Beating Trump

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One in Morristown, N.J., August 15, 2019. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

The poll that most closely predicted the outcome of the 2016 presidential election shows Joe Biden and several other Democratic candidates beating President Trump in a 2020 general-election matchup.

Biden would beat Trump by twelve points in a general election, garnering 54 percent support to Trump’s 42 percent, according to the September IBD/TIPP poll. Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Kamala Harris of California also lead Trump by three to four points, close to within the margin of error.

Among voters who lean Democratic, Warren currently has 24 percent support, up from 17 percent last month, according to the poll. Biden meanwhile slipped two points from August to 28 percent among the same voters. Support for Sanders remained level at 12 percent, keeping him in third place. Harris saw her support drop this month from 11 percent to 6 percent. South Bend, Ind. mayor Pete Buttigieg and New Jersey senator Cory Booker trailed them, polling at 5 percent and 4 percent respectively.

Despite Biden’s slight slip in the polls, the former vice president remains a strong front-runner in the crowded field of contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination. Trump, meanwhile, has begun to appear vulnerable. His job approval sank to 40 percent in August, its lowest level in six months.

The IBD/TIPP poll, which has correctly predicted the last four presidential elections, was the only national poll to predict Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton in a four-way matchup. Its final pre-election numbers placed him two points above Clinton.

The poll surveyed 903 respondents from August 22–30 and has a margin of error of 3.3 percent.

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