Democrats hold a substantial 14 point lead over their Republican opponents on the generic House ballot, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.
The poll, released eight weeks before the midterm elections, found that 52 percent of voters support Democratic candidates while just 38 percent claim to back Republicans. Democrats have increased their advantage from just nine percentage points on an identical poll released in August.
Democrats also enjoy a commanding 15 point lead over Republicans among independent voters and a widening 20 percentage point margin over Republicans among women voters (55 percent – 35 percent).
White voters are almost equally divided (48 percent Republican – 45 percent Democrat), while Democrats hold a massive 84 percent to 7 percent lead among black voters, and a 64 percent to 22 percent lead among Hispanics.
The findings lend credence to the widely discussed “blue wave” theory, which holds that Democrats and Independents, energized by opposition to president Trump, will overwhelmingly vote blue in order to secure a Democratic majority to serve as a check on the president.
“By a 14-point margin, Americans would rather vote for the Democratic candidate in their local race for the U.S. House of Representatives. Could the ‘blue wave’ become a tsunami?” asked Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “There are a lot of factors, and eight weeks of campaigning, that make up the answer to that question.”
While opposition to the Trump administration may be motivating Independents and centrist Democrats who may otherwise vote across party lines, the majority (56 percent) of respondents are not seeking to flip the House in order to impeach Trump.
“American voters don’t want Congress to tell President Donald Trump, ‘You’re fired!’ by serving him with articles of impeachment,” Malloy added.
Trump’s incessant criticism of the news media has begun to take hold in the minds of Republican voters. According to the poll, 72 percent of Republican voters trust Trump more than the media and 21 percent of all respondents agreed with Trump’s characterization of the media as “the enemy of the people.”
The poll was based on interviews with 1,038 voters nationwide conducted from September 6 to September 9.