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Republicans Retake Slim Senate Majority, Running Neck-and-Neck in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania

U.S. Senate candidate for Montana Tim Sheehy speaks on Day Two of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wis., July 16, 2024. (Mike Segar/Reuters)

Republicans retook control of the U.S. Senate on Tuesday after flipping seats in Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia.

As of Wednesday morning, the GOP will hold at least a narrow 52-seat majority in Congress’s upper chamber with six races yet to be called, according to the Associated Press. The races in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin appear particularly close, with Republicans and Democrats each leading narrowly in two of them.

Republicans were widely favored to wrest back Senate control from the Democrats, who had a narrow 51-49 seat majority heading into Election Day. Democrats were defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs this cycle.


In West Virginia, Republicans had a clear upper hand in filling the seat left vacant by retiring Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat-turned-independent. West Virginia governor Jim Justice handily won the seat over Democratic challenger Glenn Elliot in the ruby-red state, delivering Republicans’ first flip of the night.

In Ohio, Republican car dealer Bernie Moreno bested three-term Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in a race that was seen as one of the GOPs’ best shots at picking up a seat. The contest was the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history, with more than $500 million spent on ads.

Brown had been unusually lucky in his previous election cycles: He first ran for Senate in 2006, a banner year for Democrats over voter frustrations with then-president George W. Bush’s second term and the war on terror. Six years later, Brown ran alongside Democratic president Barack Obama, who narrowly carried the state. Then came the blue wave in 2018, a midterm cycle when Democrats across the country romped to victory in backlash against President Donald Trump’s first term.




This time around, Republicans worked to paint Brown as a “down-the-line Democrat” and “Biden’s best friend.”

In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, flipped the red-state seat held by Democratic Senator John Tester, according to the AP, which called the race at 6:26 a.m. With 87 percent of the vote counted, Sheehy leads with 53 percent to Tester’s 45.2 percent.

Tester, Montana’s only statewide-elected Democrat, has served in the Senate since 2006, but won each of his previous elections by a margin of four percentage points or less. Republicans sought to tie him to President Joe Biden’s unfavorable track record on the economy and the southern border.


While the GOP flipped seats, Democrats were unable to pull upsets in Florida or Texas

Florida Senator Rick Scott won reelection against Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. It was the first relatively easy victory in Scott’s nearly 15-year political career.

Scott, whose race was rated “likely Republican” by the Cook Political Report, was first elected to the Senate in 2018, winning 50.1 percent of the vote.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz similarly hung on to his seat, despite Democrats’ hopes that Representative Colin Allred could turn the Lone Star State blue. The former NFL linebacker hoped to tie Cruz to the state’s pro-life abortion laws to boost himself to victory, but Democrats came up empty in the Republican stronghold, in a repeat of Cruz’s victory against Democratic darling Beto O’Rourke in 2018.

Nebraska Senator Deb Fischer also won reelection against independent Dan Osborn.


Democrats did hang on in Maryland, however, where Angela Alsobrooks defeated former Maryland governor Larry Hogan in the Old Line State Senate race.

The race for the open seat, which is currently held by retiring Democratic Senator Ben Cardin, had been rated “likely Democrat” by the Cook Political Report. But Republicans had hoped running the popular former governor would give them a shot in the blue state as Republicans look to flip control of the Senate.

Hogan emphasized his pro-choice stance to give himself an edge in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1. Alsobrooks led Hogan by 7 percentage points in polling ahead of Election Day.

The AP has yet to call the Senate races in six states. Republicans Sam Brown and Dave McCormick are holding onto narrow leads in Nevada and Pennsylvania, respectively. Democrats Ruben Gallego, Elissa Slotkin, and Tammy Baldwin are ahead in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, according to AP tallies. The Michigan and Wisconsin races remain close.

Maine independent Angus King who caucuses has a solid lead over his Republican challenger.

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