Share of Americans Who Believe Crime Is Increasing in Their Neighborhood Reaches 50-Year High, Gallup Poll Finds

The number of Americans who believe crime in their neighborhood has increased in the past year has reached its highest level in more than 50 years, according to a Gallup poll released Friday.

Fifty-six percent of American adults now report an increase in local crime, a five point increase over last year. Meanwhile, 76 percent of Americans believe there is more crime nationally than there was last year.

There is a notable partisan divide over perceptions of crime: 73 percent of Republicans say crime in their area has increased over the past year, while 51 percent of independents and 42 percent of Democrats say the same.

When the FBI released its 2020 crime statistics showing that murders had increased dramatically, the percentage of Republicans concerned about local crime jumped from 38 to 67. Independents moved in sync with Republicans while Democrats’ opinion as to whether their areas have become more crime ridden remained virtually unchanged.

However, a majority of Democrats believe crime is increasing nationally and most Democratic-led cities have broken decades-old crime records. Chicago, for instance, experienced its “deadliest year” in a quarter of a century while Philadelphia is set to outdo its 2021 crime wave. Similar trends can be seen in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Milwaukee.

Crime data can be unreliable and difficult to interpret. Nearly 40 percent of law enforcement agencies across the U.S., including the NYPD and LAPD, “failed to report their crime data to the FBI,” Axios reported in June. Despite this, the FBI’s 2021 crime report (which excluded major American cities such as New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco) registered only a 1 percent overall decline in violent crime but a 4 percent spike in murder.

By comparison, data from the World Bank suggests that America is currently experiencing its worst crime wave in nearly twenty years.

The composition of crimes Americans are worried about reflects a changing landscape. Nearly three quarters of surveyed Americans frequently or occasionally worried about being the victim of computer hacking and identity theft, Gallup found. Moreover, fear of protecting school children escalated in the wake of the Uvalde, Texas shooting, increasing by thirteen points this year.

Although a majority of Democrats believed crime increased nationally in 2022, this figure has dropped considerably since the Trump years, when nearly three quarters of Democrats saw national crime as worsening each year. Republicans broke a Gallup record with 95 percent seeing national crime rates getting worse, the highest ever recorded in history.

Midterm headwinds now seem to be favoring Republicans. A recent generic congressional ballot poll created by USA Today found Republicans have reversed a four-point deficit since July. Meanwhile, President Biden’s approval rating continues to decline.

Alongside inflation, Republican messaging in the weeks leading up to the midterms has highlighted the issue of violent crime, taking aim at the wave of progressive prosecutors who have come to power in recent years and enacted radical changes such as eliminating or severely limiting cash bail.