The level of support for Trump’s impeachment and removal dipped below the level of opposition for first time since the inquiry was formalized in October, according to a RealClearPolitics polling average updated just two days before the impending House vote on impeachment.
RCP’s average tipped in Trump’s favor, 47.3 to 46.7 percent on Monday following the addition of two new national polls, NPR/PBS/Marist and USA Today/Suffolk, which found that opposition to impeachment outweighed support by three and five percentage points, respectively.
Tom Bevan, co-founder and president of RCP, tweeted about the news.
With two new polls added this morning, support for impeachment is officially under water. pic.twitter.com/9fNjV5fe7H
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) December 16, 2019
RCP’s average has gradually narrowed since a high of 4.7 percent in favor of impeachment and removal on October 21, the same day the House rejected a censure resolution put forth by Republicans against House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D., Calif.) for making “a mockery of the impeachment process, one of this chamber’s most solemn constitutional duties.”
Both the NPR and USA Today polls show opposition to impeachment has ticked up slightly despite the public hearings the House held in November. Last month, NPR found 47 percent supporting impeachment and 46 percent opposing, while in October, USA Today found the margin at 47 to 46 percent in opposition to impeachment and removal.
“It’s like the hearings have never happened,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the NPR poll. “The arguments have only served to reinforce existing views, and everyone is rooting for their side.”
Vulnerable House Democrats are currently mulling the impending vote. Representative Jeff Van Drew (D., N.J.) has reportedly elected to switch parties rather than risk losing a 2020 Democratic primary over his opposition to impeachment, while Michigan freshman Democrat Elissa Slotkin announced Monday that she would support both articles of impeachment against Trump.