A breakdown of the key Senate, House, and gubernatorial races.
Midterms Scorecard
Senate
Republicans: 53/Democrats: 47
Democrats must net four seats to claim majority.
House
Republicans: 218/Democrats: 214
Democrats must net three seats to claim majority.
Gubernatorial
Republicans: 26/Democrats: 24
Thirty-six gubernatorial seats up for reelection.
(Follow along for updates as returns come in.)
What’s at Stake
Republicans’ governing trifecta hangs in the balance as voters head to the polls on Tuesday to make their choice in the 2026 elections. Midterms generally go poorly for the party in power, and this cycle is likely to continue that trend. With backlash to high prices stemming from President Donald Trump’s tariffs and military activities in Iran widespread across the country, voters could be ready to throw Republicans out of office.
Democrats are likely to take the House of Representatives just based on the rules of political momentum. Republicans in 2024 won just a three-seat majority there, and Congress’s lower chamber is usually the most responsive to political whims since its members must face their constituents every two years. That makes the GOP majority especially vulnerable.
At first, the Senate was more difficult. Republicans took a 53-47 majority, and the Senate map originally made Democrats’ prospects of taking the chamber appear poor. But Democrats’ map expanded as Trump’s second term went on and voters soured on his administration and the Republican Congress. Now, the prospect of a Democratic Senate is not guaranteed, but it is a real possibility.
As Democrats attempted to build their roster of candidates for the general election, their voters gave them mixed results in the primaries for races in both chambers. They made pragmatic choices in some cases by selecting a moderate in the primary, while they chose progressives in others and made the races harder to win than they were set to be. Encouraged by President Trump, Republican primary voters also made the task of holding onto both chambers more difficult in some races (See e.g. Ken Paxton in Texas).
With voters exercised about the direction of Trump’s second term and stagnation in Congress, Republicans are bracing for a difficult night. If they’re able to hold onto one of the chambers, most likely the Senate, they’ll have avoided the dire outcome that many political observers predicted going into Tuesday.
Key Senate Races
Maine
In Maine, Democrats are hoping to unseat the last remaining northeastern Republican in a state that typically votes blue in presidential years. Senator Susan Collins has served the Pine Tree State for 30 years, proving to be politically resilient in the face of several difficult election cycles for Republicans. This year, Democrats got off to a rocky start when they had to scramble to replace Graham Platner, their original nominee, who dropped out of the race following credible allegations of sexual assault and other scandals. Their new nominee, Troy Jackson, is a safer bet, but he lacks Platner’s energy and charisma. The race has turned into a battle over the question of whether politicians in Washington, D.C., or Augusta are responsible for the difficult financial straits Mainers find themselves in. Ultimately, it’s a question of whether an independent-minded, institutionalist Republican can withstand the blue wave in a state that has no love lost for Trump.
North Carolina
This is the most likely Democratic pickup. After Trump drove Senator Thom Tillis out of politics and forced him into retirement last summer, the GOP settled on former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley as its nominee. He is up against former Governor Roy Cooper, one of the Democrats’ best recruits of the cycle. The popular two-term governor has led in pretty much every public poll, and Republicans have basically conceded the race, pulling money out of the state. But Trump has still rallied there in the closing weeks of the election.
Iowa
Republicans seemed to have this race in the bag until about a month before election day, when high diesel prices due to the Iran war — and high input costs due to the tariffs — caused a scare among the GOP and threatened Representative Ashley Hinson’s chances to beat her Democratic opponent, Josh Turek, a state legislator and former paralympian. Since then, Hinson has engaged in a strategic posture of breaking with Trump on some issues while generally sticking with him on the policies he holds especially dear. Her gambit seems to have worked, as Hinson appears to have pulled ahead. But anything can happen in an environment that looks to be especially rough for Republicans.
Kansas
What’s the matter with Kansas? That’s what a lot of Republicans are asking, as incumbent Senator Roger Marshall is in an unexpectedly tight battle with challenger Adam Hamilton, a pastor who was a registered Republican until this year. Hamilton has also outraised Marshall. As with many midwestern states, tariffs and the Iran war have led to some dissatisfaction over prices, which could lead voters to turn on Republicans. Plus, a statewide Democratic win would not be unprecedented in the Sunflower State. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is finishing her second term, following her election in 2018 and reelection in 2022.
Michigan
The main question in this race is whether the environment is so bad for the GOP that a generic Republican in a swing state can not beat a progressive Democrat who has never held elected office. Former Representative Mike Rogers narrowly lost to Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin in 2024 as Trump carried the state, and he cruised to the Republican nomination this year. Meanwhile, Abdul El-Sayed emerged as the winner of a bruising primary with moderate Representative Haley Stevens. Running on a progressive platform that is especially critical of Israel, El-Sayed has become hostile when reporters have asked him about his or his family’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. The nominee’s track record on Israel has led at least one swing voter to endorse Rogers — Stevens herself. After a falling out with El-Sayed, whom she initially supported, Stevens announced on Sunday that she was endorsing the Republican nominee. In short, basically every development on the Democratic side has benefited Rogers, but he is still behind in a tight race with El-Sayed.
Ohio
Longtime Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking revenge following his loss to Senator Bernie Moreno in 2024. His target is Senator John Husted, the state’s former lieutenant governor who was appointed to fill the vacancy left by Vice President J.D. Vance. The race is a test of whether Trump, who has won Ohio comfortably in three elections, has truly turned the state into a reliable Republican one through his populist program. Running in an environment in which anti-incumbent energy is strong, Husted has tried on the campaign trail to deflect it back at Brown, pointing out that the 73-year-old former senator has spent almost his entire adult life in public office.
Texas
Incumbent Senator John Cornyn was the closest thing Republicans had to a guarantee of winning this race, so Trump naturally endorsed his primary opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton. A scandal-plagued Trump loyalist, Paxton has been dragged down by the skeletons in his closet, chief among them his impeachment by the Texas House of Representatives on corruption allegations — and subsequent acquittal by the state Senate. He faces state legislator James Talarico, who has faced Republican attacks for past statements such as “God is nonbinary,” which he now admits are “cringey.” Despite his comments on religion and gender that are off-putting to many Texas voters, Talarico has worked to present as a moderate, and he could become the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas since 1994.
Alaska
Will the real Dan Sullivan please stand up? That’s been the most interesting storyline in this race — Democrats’ efforts to recruit a candidate with a similar name to incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan to run against him in an attempt to confuse voters. The New York Times recently reported that it was campaign staffers for Democratic nominee former Representative Mary Peltola who recruited Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., basically a random guy from a small town in the state, to enter the race. After a series of court rulings, both Sullivans will appear on the ballot, and it is unclear how much the gambit will actually confuse voters. On the one hand, Alaskans have proven that they pay attention to detail. Senator Lisa Murkowski taught enough voters to spell her name correctly in 2010 to win as a write-in candidate. On the other, many political observers in the state feel that Peltola only won her lone congressional term in 2022 due to voters’ confusion over how to work the state’s ranked-choice voting system, which was used in that cycle for the first time. Still, the ranked-choice system allows voters to rank the incumbent Sullivan and the fake Sullivan as their top two choices. The fake Sullivan’s votes would then roll into the real Sullivan’s, minimizing his impact. At the same time, there could be enough voters who simply rank the fake Sullivan first and then turn in their ballot, which would hurt the incumbent. In any event, the Department of Justice has filed a dubious lawsuit seeking to block the certification of the election results if the incumbent Sullivan loses due to the presence of his name twin on the ballot. A federal judge threw the lawsuit out over the weekend, but the administration has said it plans to appeal the decision.
House Races to Watch
PA-01
Similar to Maine’s Senate race, the contest in Pennsylvania’s First Congressional district is a test of whether an independent-minded, moderate Republican who is willing to buck his party can win in a year in which many expect a blue wave. Representative Brain Fitzpatrick won the suburban Pennsylvania district in 2024 in the same year that Vice President Kamala Harris carried it. Following his reelection, the five-term congressman voted against Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and he has played up his independence on the campaign trail, calling himself politically homeless.
PA-07
This race might be the best bellwether for how things are going for Republicans. Pennsylvania’s Seventh Congressional District, nestled in the scenic Lehigh Valley, has followed political winds for years. It went for Trump in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020, and then Trump again in 2024. In that time, both Republicans and Democrats have held it. This year, freshman GOP Representative Ryan Mackenzie hopes to win a second term after defeating Democrat Susan Wild last cycle. He faces Bob Brooks, a firefighter union leader who in a crowded primary won the endorsements of not only Governor Josh Shapiro and the Democratic establishment, but also Senator Bernie Sanders. Look at this race as a barometer for the mood of swing voters this cycle.
IA-01
If Republicans are having a bad night, this race will likely tell us just how bad it is. Three-term GOP Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has specialized in winning close races throughout her time representing southeastern Iowa. She first won election in 2020 by just six votes, and her margin last cycle was around 800 — the smallest of any victorious GOP House member in 2024. With the broader environment looking especially negative for Republicans, Miller-Meeks may hit the end of her line, as she faces Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan for a third time. National Republican groups have pulled money out of the race, essentially conceding the race to Democrats. Miller-Meeks is expected to lose, and if it is a total beatdown, that could bode ill for Republicans nationally.
MI-07
If Democrats lose this race, it may constitute their primary voters’ biggest fumble of the cycle. This Lansing-centered district hosted the most expensive race in the 2022 midterms, which saw Elissa Slotkin, who won election to the Senate in 2024, prevail over Tom Barrett. Barrett would go on to win the district in 2024, and he faces Democratic challenger William Lawrence as he seeks a second term. Two moderate candidates running in the Democratic primary each refused to drop out, so they ended up splitting the centrist vote and handing the Sanders-backed Lawrence the nomination. Lawrence was a member of the Democratic Socialists of America until the month before the primary election, and he has a history of adopting far-left stances. Like in Michigan’s Senate race, the question here is whether a generic Republican can defeat a left-wing Democrat, or if the environment is so bad for Republicans that the candidate does not matter as much as the party affiliation.
FL-25
If Michigan’s Seventh District is a case of Democrats giving away a winnable race, Florida’s Twenty-Fifth District saw Democrats make the politically pragmatic choice in a primary. Representative Jared Moskowitz saw the makeup of his district, located just north of Miami, change thanks to his state’s redistricting efforts, but he nevertheless defeated a DSA-backed primary candidate — even trolling far-left political streamer Hasan Piker following his victory. Moskowitz has been outspoken against the DSA, having become part of a small, informal caucus of House Democrats working against the organization’s influence on the party. Congressional Republicans’ super PAC originally moved advertising money out of the district, a sign that they are not high on Republican former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer’s chances of beating Moskowitz, but President Donald Trump’s group has invested in the race more recently.
NY-17
Like Fitzpatrick, Representative Mike Lawler is a Republican serving a district that Harris won in 2024. Unlike Fitzpatrick, however, Lawler embraces his party bonafides, calling himself a conservative Republican and choosing to work within his party rather than openly buck it. Lawler voted in favor of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, but he has used the law as an example of his willingness to influence his party from the inside. He was one of a relatively small number of vulnerable Republicans to speak at the party’s midterm convention, where he recounted his resisting Trump and GOP leaders in his successful bid to increase the cap on the state and local tax, or SALT, deduction, which benefits constituents in blue cities and locales with high taxes. Even so, he has also maintained a bipartisan record while in Congress, and this race will test whether a proud Republican who tries to work across the aisle can win. Meanwhile, his Democratic challenger, Cait Conley, has tried to tie him to Trump, as she attempts to unseat him in the district just north of New York City.
Gubernatorial Races to Watch
Alaska
Alaskans could elect a Democratic governor for the first time since 1998, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently changing its rating for the race from a “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat.” The open race to replace term-limited Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy features Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and three Republicans: Bernadette Wilson, a business owner who has received the backing of President Trump; Dave Bronson, the previous mayor of Anchorage; and Treg Taylor, a former state attorney general.
Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state legislator, came in first place in the state’s open primary in August. Democrat Tom Begich finished in second place, but later dropped his bid to give Kreiss-Tomkins a better chance at the governor’s mansion. In Alaska, the top four candidates in the open primary move on to the general election.
Kreiss-Tomkins currently leads in the polls, according to a RealClearPolitics polling average. He sits 6.5 points ahead of Wilson. Trump criticized Bronson and Taylor for remaining in the race in a post on Truth Social in early October accusing the duo of taking away votes from Wilson, “the Candidate that has, by far, the best chance of winning.”
Georgia
In the Peach State, the race to replace outgoing term-limited Republican Governor Brian Kemp pits billionaire Republican Rick Jackson against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance, a Democrat. Jackson leads by 1.2 points in the RCP polling average.
Georgia’s last Democratic governor left office in 2003.
Nevada
Incumbent Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican, is trying to hang on to his seat in a swing state race that Cook Political Report has rated a “Toss Up.” He’s facing off against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford.
Ohio
President Trump won Ohio by eleven points in 2024, but the gubernatorial race between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton has been tighter than Republicans bargained for. Ramaswamy, who was hand-picked by Trump to replace term-limited Republican Governor Mike DeWine, came under fire for greenlighting an ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother accusing her daughter of lying about the childhood abuse she was subjected to her. Acton was removed from her mother’s custody after her mother’s then-boyfriend was convicted of sexually abusing her. Court records obtained by NR support Acton’s version of events. An RCP polling average has Acton leading the race by 4.3 points. If she wins, she would be the first Democratic governor in Ohio in 20 years.
Texas
Incumbent Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, is running in a closer-than-expected race against Democratic Congresswoman Gina Hinojosa. While Abbott won his reelection bid in 2022 by double digits, the Cook Political Report rates his current race as “Lean Republican.” Abbott currently leads in an RCP polling average by 3.2 points. If Hinojosa were to pull off a surprise upset, she would become the first Democrat to serve as Texas governor in more than 30 years.
Wisconsin
The swing-state race between Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and Republican Representative Tom Tiffany also remains a “Toss Up.” The pair are vying to replace Democratic Governor Tony Evers, who announced last year that he would not seek another term. Crowley, a moderate who ousted Democratic socialist Francesca Hong in the primary, currently leads Tiffany in a RCP polling average by 3.5 points.
Ballot Measures
Abortion, fairness in women’s sports, and sex-change procedures for minors are all on the ballot in several states this Election Day.
Virginia
Virginians will decide whether to approve a proposed constitutional amendment that would protect a “fundamental right to reproductive freedom.” But Amendment 1 is far more radical than its proponents have let on. Current state law allows third-trimester abortions only if the pregnancy is likely to result in death or “substantially or irremediably impair the mental or physical health of the woman,” and requires three physicians to affirm that such conditions exist. The new language would require only that the attending physician deem the abortion “medically indicated” to protect the woman’s “life or physical or mental health.”
The proposed amendment would also abolish the right of parents to be consulted on, and to consent to, abortions sought by their young daughters, and enable anyone to perform an abortion and to escape legal responsibility for botching an abortion.
And the amendment wouldn’t stop there: it would also enable a child to receive puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and sterilization surgery without parental knowledge or consent.
Idaho
In Idaho, a ballot measure could overturn the state’s abortion ban, which currently prohibits abortion at any point in pregnancy, with strict exceptions for cases in which a mother’s life is at risk and first-trimester carveouts for rape and incest. The new proposed policy would establish a statutory right to “reproductive freedom and privacy,” covering everything from abortion to fertility treatments to contraception. Like in Virginia, the amendment provides no distinctions for minors or carveouts for parental consent. The ballot measure would make abortion legal up to fetal viability, after which the state can prohibit abortion “except in cases of medical emergency.” However,
any time an abortionist considers pregnancy a cause of mental distress, an abortion
would be allowed, even late in pregnancy.
Nevada
Nevada’s Question 6, which creates a constitutional right to abortion, was already approved by voters in 2024, but must win again this year to become law. The proposal would enshrine a fundamental right to abortion “up to fetal viability” that is protected from state intervention unless justified by a compelling interest.
Missouri
Missouri finds itself in a different situation: the state’s voters approved a “constitutional right to reproductive freedom” in 2024, sparked by backlash over a strict law that prohibited abortion even in cases of rape or incest. Now, pro-lifers have proposed a ballot measure that prohibits abortion, with exceptions for “medical emergency, fetal anomaly, rape, or incest.” A “medical emergency” is defined as a condition in which maintaining the pregnancy “creates a serious risk of substantial and irreversible physical impairment of a major bodily function.”
Coming off their 2024 loss, pro-lifers are hoping to win over voters who are less supportive of the abortion restrictions by also including a provision in the ballot measure that would also codify into the state constitution a ban on sex-change surgeries and hormone treatments for minors.
Colorado
Colorado’s Proposition 134 would bar male athletes from competing in female divisions from kindergarten through college at any school or sports association that receives state funding. It would require students of both sexes to play on teams that align with their sex, or on co-ed teams. A separate proposition, 135, would prohibit doctors from performing sex-change surgeries on minors and would ban state or federal funds, as well as Medicaid or private insurance coverage, from paying for such surgeries.
Arizona
Arizona voters will similarly decide whether to require K-12 athletes of both sexes to compete on teams matching their biological sex. The proposal in the Grand Canyon State would also ban schools and athletic associations from allowing students or employees to use restrooms or locker rooms that don’t match their biological sex.
Washington’s proposed policy would require all girls who want to participate in a sport to provide documentation from a doctor verifying their biological sex. Meanwhile, Nebraskans will decide whether to enshrine the state’s law banning male athletes from girls’ sports in the state’s constitution.