Former president Donald Trump has surpassed 50 percent support among likely Iowa caucus goers, securing the largest lead ever recorded in a competitive GOP primary five weeks out from the contest.
Trump earned first-choice support from 51 percent of likely caucus goers in the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register poll, while his nearest rival, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, sits at just 19 percent. The new poll suggests that the recent flurry of campaign activity among Trump’s rivals — and the winnowing of the GOP primary field — has worked to the de facto incumbent’s benefit: Trump has risen 8 points since the same poll was conducted in October, while DeSantis has climbed just three points over the same period.
Nikki Haley, meanwhile, remains static, winning a first-choice endorsement from just 16 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers, the same share she held in October. Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie bring up the rear with 5 percent and 4 percent first-choice support, respectively.
“The field may have shrunk, but it may have made Donald Trump even stronger. I would call his lead commanding at this point,” said J. Ann Selzer, who has been conducting the Hawkeye State poll for three decades.
The former president is the first choice of a majority of evangelical Christians, self-identified Republicans, and first-time caucus goers, and white men without college degrees, while his weakest categories are college-educated voters, independents, and residents of Iowa’s suburbs.
DeSantis holds a lead in what could be termed the “caucus for second place,” with 30 percent of respondents saying he is their second choice and 18 percent “actively considering” voting for him on January 15. Haley, who sits in third place in the poll, is the second-ranked candidate for 17 percent of likely caucus goers and actively considered by 19 percent.
After last week’s debate — the last bout officially scheduled by the Republican National Committee — 49 percent of Iowa caucus goers say they have already decided their pick, an increase from October’s 41-percent mark. 46 percent say they are still deciding.