Turkey is likely headed to a runoff election later in May as neither incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan nor rival Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu cleared the 50 percent threshold to win outright.
As of press time, with more than 97 percent of ballot boxes counted, Erdoğan leads with 49.4 percent of the vote, and his main challenger has 45 percent, according to state-owned news agency Anadolu. A third nationalist candidate — Sinan Oğan — is in third, with 5.3 percent of the vote.
Both of the leading candidates have claimed that they are ahead and have also contested the figures in an election of enormous importance for Turkey. Oğan has also expressed concerns, suggesting that overseas votes have been manipulated.
Polls before the election predicted a tight race but gave Kiliçdaroğlu, the opposition leader, a slight lead, according to Reuters.
Erdoğan has been in power for 20 years and has grown increasingly authoritarian. Domestic troubles, such as a languishing economy and the continued repercussions of two massive earthquakes that claimed tens of thousands of lives, are top of mind for many voters.
The lira fell against the euro in the immediate aftermath of the election as investors voiced disappointment that Erdoğan’s era of unconventional economics is not yet over, the Guardian reported.
Turkey’s position on the international stage was also an important factor in the election. Kiliçdaroğlu has promised to take Turkey down a more democratic and secular path, strengthening frayed relationships with NATO and the West more generally. Erdoğan is a key ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin, and his defeat would prove thorny for the Kremlin but comforting for the U.S., among others.
A runoff election would take place on May 28. The endorsement of Oğan, the candidate in third, could prove crucial to the final outcome.
In the parliament, Erdoğan’s coalition looks set to maintain a ruling majority.