Planet Gore

Paging Dr. Hansen . . .

You gotta love Google alerts. I’ve read the UK’s spiked before (Brendan O’Neill mostly), but it’s not a daily stop. Today it’s certainly worth a visit, as they apply a little logic and “maths” to James Hansen’s claims about man-made global warming; our NASA pal comes up wanting.
Canadian contributor DK Johnston examines Hansen’s “99-percent certainty” that GHG emissions must be reduced in order to combat global warming (and the underlying assumptions of that claim). Johnston’s handicapping puts the certainty at more like 35 to 70 percent.

People are notoriously error-prone when reasoning about probability. When told that two statements are each very likely to be true, most people immediately conclude that the two taken together are just as probable. But this isn’t so. Claiming that two things are true just gives you twice as many opportunities to be wrong. Uncertainties multiply, however slight each individual one might be.

Most Popular

Media

How American Journalism Died

In 2017, the liberal Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy at Harvard University found that 93 percent of CNN’s coverage of the Trump administration was negative. The center found similarly negative Trump coverage at other major news outlets. The election year 2020 has only accelerated ... Read More
Media

How American Journalism Died

In 2017, the liberal Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy at Harvard University found that 93 percent of CNN’s coverage of the Trump administration was negative. The center found similarly negative Trump coverage at other major news outlets. The election year 2020 has only accelerated ... Read More

Battleground Arizona

At an August 11 Trump-campaign event in Mesa, Ariz., the state’s Republican governor, Doug Ducey, noted in his remarks introducing Mike Pence that President Trump and the vice president “have visited the state of Arizona more than any other presidential administration in the history of our country,” adding: ... Read More

Battleground Arizona

At an August 11 Trump-campaign event in Mesa, Ariz., the state’s Republican governor, Doug Ducey, noted in his remarks introducing Mike Pence that President Trump and the vice president “have visited the state of Arizona more than any other presidential administration in the history of our country,” adding: ... Read More