Planet Gore

A Stubborn Trend

Marc Morano has sent around a post by Planet Gore’s favorite Pilsener, The Reference Frame’s Luboš Motl, who has recharted the NCDC data beginning in 1999 . . . and, uh . . . the cooling trend is still there.

What you see if you do a linear regression is a cooling trend by 0.49 °F = 0.27 °C per decade. The cooling between 2006 and 2008 was more dramatic: from 55 °F to 53 °F, by a whopping two degrees Fahrenheit!
Crosspatch was feeling badly because he originally chose the 1998-2008 period which actually contains eleven years rather than ten: in this sense, he used a nonperturbative, M-theoretical definition of a decade. 🙂
Moreover, the first year in this interval was the famously warm El Nino year, 1998. With this choice, crosspatch obtained a slightly faster cooling trend. He has paid a very high price: alarmist attack dogs immediately accused him of cherry-picking. 😉
But even if you begin with a cooler La Nina year 1999, as I did, you obtain a cooling trend in the average U.S. temperatures during the last 10 years. Because some infrequent readers may have problems to interpret these words, let me emphasize that this cooling means that there has been no warming in the U.S. for 10 years.
I am (and the data are) not only questioning the heavenly huge, urgent, catastrophically accelerating, and global eco-socialism demanding rate of global warming but the very existence of global warming and the sanity of all people who believe this myth.
In fact, there has been a cooling, and a rather fast one that would subtract 2.7 °C per century if it continued by the same rate (and it surely won’t).
Furthermore, this cooling cannot really be explained by ENSO dynamics (El Nino and La Nina episodes) because the ENSO episodes are distributed pretty much symmetrically in the last decade. This 10-year period began with a La Nina and it ended with a La Nina.
Now, indeed, other continents would lead to different conclusions. But let me mention that these conclusions wouldn’t be radically different and moreover, 90% of Americans don’t care about the temperatures anywhere outside the U.S.
There’s been a cooling in the last 10 years which means that even if there exists an underlying warming trend, it will take many decades before this warming emerges out of the “noise” that we must assume to exist in order to avoid a direct falsification of the global warming hypothesis by the evidence above. . . .
Soon afterwords, RSS MSU joined NCDC and gave us the first figure for the December 2008 global temperature. Anomaly-wise, which was 0.174 °C, December was 0.04 °C cooler than November.
The middle troposphere where global warming should be faster than on the surface offers us even more remarkable data. The December anomaly was -0.028 °C, cooler than the average in the last 30 years. In fact, 8 months out of 12 in 2008 were cooler than the average month with the same name in 1979-2008.


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