Obviously Fiorina dominated the debate — impressively eloquent in the fashion of a leader, in command of details, and with any number of memorable takeaways for key constituencies. The brand she was going for and nailed was tough and well prepared. She may soar quickly to the top of the polls, and she has become the darling of both the MSM and various conservative activists. She did very well in “being a woman,” especially in refusing to think of women as a special-interest group that needs representation on paper money. Remember, though, that she’s basically not vetted yet.
Rubio was consistently excellent, but he spoke too quickly and failed to produce the takeaways. You remember how smart and earnest each response was, but it’s a lot harder to remember why. He stayed in perfect character as Rubio, didn’t try anything fancy, and lives to fight for many more days.
Christie and Huckabee tried very hard, and Christie might even have been judged the winner by many if the debate were the only knowledge folks had of the candidates. But in the end the formidable talent of each of these men has been wasted for this purpose. If I were in charge, I’d want Christie to get another look.
The attacks on Trump by the other candidates really didn’t touch him much all that much (except maybe the inevitable Fiorina defense of her face). The most effective way of diminishing him was simply to ignore him or blow him off when complicated matters of substance were being discussed, such as foreign policy or appointments to the Court. Trump probably keeps most of his supporters (what polls there are so far don’t show as much leakage as the talking heads assume), but it was hard not to notice that, compared with almost all the other candidates, he doesn’t know much. He promised to hire the best team around to remedy that deficiency, but he wasn’t able to actually name any names. Trump opened and closed by promising to give us more of everything, which, of course, I’m for.
Cruz was smart and aggressive, but somehow both not enough and too much. His takeaways didn’t take, and he’s just too strident. I would guess things don’t get better for him. Studies now show that he looks and sounds more than a bit like Dana Carvey’s Church Lady. That goes part of the way toward explaining why he has a hard time failing to annoy.
Bush and Kasich stayed in character. Bush, in particular, really displayed his command of some of the issues. He was more energetic without being loud and ridiculous. He wasn’t great in confronting Trump, but many were touched by his loyalty to his brother. Bush, Kasich, and Christie all did well in defending their records as governor, and so in being plausibly presidential. It might be the case that people who want the Republican nominee not to be all that Republican will continue to tend toward Kasich, whereas Christie went the other direction of upgrading his conservative brand.
It was a really bad night only for Carson. The main reason is that he took a number of singular positions that might well dismay his supporters. And it was hard not to notice that he also doesn’t know much. He didn’t have the charming personal moments that he did in the first debate, and he had a couple of inauthentic ones, particularly on immigration. (Picking mom for the money didn’t hit home.) If this disappointing performance causes Carson to swoon in the polls, who picks up his support? Clearly Fiorina was thinking a lot about that when putting together her memorably scripted pro-life–Planned Parenthood moment.
Walker and Paul were also in it to win it, but they just weren’t better enough to make any difference. There’s a lot less to both of them than I assumed.
None of the candidates favored by the big donors will likely surge as a result of this debate. Rubio deserves to pick up steam, but we don’t always get what we deserve.
Fiorina’s other brand is now the outsider who knows stuff. And for now she’s going to do much better than Cruz in picking up the disaffected who are tired of Trump.
Still, there are problems with her outsider brand. Although her comments last night were very substantial, they lacked anti-establishment substance. And beginning today, I would think, she’s an establishment candidate. For me, the reality of Fiorina, as displayed last night, is somewhat less compelling than was her promise.
So who am I for? Well, I’m going to wait and see who’s left when the process gets to Georgia.