So I’m just back from the core texts conference, which was a genuinely edifying and educational experience. More soon on that.
Meanwhile, it was, to quote Larry David and a couple of other experts, a “pretty good” week for Donald Trump. He upgraded his campaign staff, showed America his loving and charming family, said nothing new that was offensively crazy, and did well in developing the brand of “the system is rigged against me.”
Most of all, however, every poll released shows that he’s not fading at all. In the northeast, his commanding lead persists. And the newest Yougov/CBS poll has him up 18 percent in California. The studies show that Cruz suffers from a huge “authenticity” issue, which is not quite the same as “nobody likes him.” That poll, mind you, is more than a bit of an outlier, but there isn’t one released lately that shows Cruz surging. Trump remains ahead in California.
What about Cruz’s snatching all those delegates? That makes a difference only if there’s more than one ballot at the convention. And it’s been known for a while that Trump’s only route to victory is on the first ballot. In that way, all the industrious and rational efforts of the Cruzians don’t make any difference. They do make a difference in guaranteeing that no third candidate emerges from the rubble of a chaotic convention.
The only way Cruz doesn’t get nominated, it seems, is if Trump wins big in all the big states in the coming weeks. He can’t be denied if he has all the popular momentum. Well, that could happen. I still think it’s unlikely, but, in the spirit of empirical, value-free social science, I have to say Trump’s chance didn’t diminish at all this week. Cruz’s effort to grow on America has to be accelerated big-time to save a civilized Republican party. To be sure, he’s trying hard on the various talk shows, sometimes with his loving and charming family.
Bernie Sanders also had a pretty good week. He cleaned Clinton’s clock in the most recent debate. He got her to admit that a $15 minimum wage is a reasonable goal for Democrats. Her lurch to the left has to be regarded as personally degrading, even if it succeeds in fending off Sanders.
Still, Sanders has to actually win in New York for his surge to continue, and that does seem unlikely. Once again, however, the enthusiasm gap might be the cause of the polls being way off.
One reason among many that President Bernie might be crazy is his firm stance against modernizing our nuclear weapons in response to upgrades by the Russians and Chinese.
We have to think about his actual presidency just a bit. If he can beat Secretary Clinton, it’s reasonable to assume (with the support of the relevant studies) that he might well do the same to Trump or Cruz.