What are the short-term prospects for America? Any kind of serious speculation about whether we’ve entered “Late Republican Times,” as I wonder, or whether “America’s Democracy Is Doomed,” as Matthew Yglesias pronounces, has to begin by being grounded in this. And this means really coming to terms with how huge the GOP gains were in November, and for conservatives, explaining how pessimistic feelings about the future of small-r republican government in America might be merited despite them.
There are a number of long-term fears and hopes we particularly need to think about. They include a) the new political correctness, and its threats to liberty of religion, association, speech, and education, b) the character of the Supreme Court, c) the character of the federal bureaucracy, d) executive legislating, e) prospects for the emergence of Reform Democrats, f) prospects for the strengthening of economic leftism, and g) prospects for the emergence of a Liberal-tarian Party.
From a conservative perspective, assuming that keeping a lid on national budget growth is a minimal requirement, the two key hopes on the list are that b) develops in the correct direction, and that e) actually happens.
By “Reform” Democrats I essentially mean a reprise of the New Democrat movement of the 90s, this time accompanied by larger emphasis on civility and support for the Constitution. The intellectual spirit of this reprise would involve a return to something akin to the open-mindedness that characterized The New Republic of the Peretz era at its best. The Reform would especially seek to strengthen Democratic expectations and procedures for disowning party members linked to various kinds of corruption or vile behavior. The reason this prospect is so important, despite how unlikely it appears at present, is that we cannot maintain our republic indefinitely so long as the Democratic Party retains its competitiveness along with its present characteristic corruption-abetting, mendacity-expecting, demonization-demanding, and Constitution-flouting traits. Out of a certain moral imperative, and out of a witness to the good traits of liberals I know, I continue to stubbornly disagree with several of our blogs’ commenters who say a Democratic return to self-moderation is impossible.
To think about what the short term holds means considering the existing political trends, but also admitting the possible “wild cards” that could come into play. A wild card that is likely to occur is a war in the Middle East, probably American-led against ISIS or Iran. Other less predictable, and thus really wild “wild cards” include: economic collapse, vigorous economic recovery, a natural disaster or epidemic, riots in the wake of a more serious Ferguson-incident, scary war with Putin’s Russia due to his attacking the Baltics, war between China and Japan, an Obama or Clinton scandal of un-ignorable proportions, a Rand Paul getting elected, and an early Supreme Court justice retirement or death on either side.
Besides a Middle East war, a wild card that I regard as likely is the late replacement of HRC as the Democratic nominee for 2016 with an Unknown Democrat(UD). Not Warren, nor anyone we really know. His or her deeper ideological proclivities could run in nearly any direction, as the Obama-reminiscent non-vetting of this “UD,” once elite Dems buy into his or her ideological and identity-politics branding, is a given of the scenario. That alone is what makes the card wild—otherwise, the point conservatives must heed is a constant: don’t under-estimate the Democrats’ presidential chances. (I drafted this a couple weeks ago—today, with HRC’s email scandal unfolding, it does not seem impossible she might withdraw early enough to permit a more wide-open contest for the nomination.)
Two important wild cards that would have longer-term impacts: the collapse of the collectively-enforced black political identity, and, a Christian revival. (The first essentially consist of blacks coming to take the arguments of someone like Shelby Steele seriously, and thus resulting in their 90% level of support for Dems falling into the 50s-60s range—this would develop quickly, if it did, given how blatant the lies have become which sustain that identity.)
Having granted the existence of all those wild cards, and of others unknown, I’m ready now for the crystal ball work, short-term grade.
There are three basic configurations that could characterize the short term, that is, the years encompassing the next two presidential terms. The three are: Marginal Republican Dominance, Divided Government, and Legitimacy-Lacking Democrat Rule.
Marginal Republican Dominance: any known GOP candidate besides Rand Paul wins in 2016, and the Senate stays GOP. Continued hold of the House, and continued yet slight gains in statehouses and governorships. But because the margins remain narrow in the Senate and in the national popular vote, and most especially because liberals retain control over the bureaucracy, much of the judiciary, academia, entertainment/arts, legacy media, and many big tech corporations, what objectively ought to be dominance will actually feel and function like marginal advantage.
Divided Government: Dems win White House, the House remains GOP, the Senate goes Dem by one or two seats or is tied. Anybody’s guess which party wins the presidency in 2020 and 2024, as no big-time voting trends emerging in favor of either side. For both parties, an era of hesitancy, but of a sort we’re all very used to.
Legitimacy-Lacking Democratic Rule: HRC or UD decisively win. House held by GOP despite big losses, but Senate is decisively lost. Polls increasingly point to another such Dem victory in 2020. Given liberals’ psychology, and their control over the institutions mentioned above, this victory will be regarded by them as a mandate to Rule. That rule will be Obama-like in that it will refuse to acknowledge the actually fairly marginal character of Democratic popularity, and it will find ways to operate without the House. The bureaucracy, the judiciary, and executive legislating will become the main levers of power.
So what happens with the longer-terms hopes and fears in each scenario? Stay tuned. And sure, in the meantime, tell us yourself.