Gene Steuerle has written a Tax Policy Center post on the likely consequences of ACA for insured workers and their families:
We’ve updated earlier estimates of how the various subsidies in the health reform law affect the insurance market for both employers and workers. And the results remain quite dramatic: It appears that the new law will make it beneficial for many employers to drop their insurance coverage. In 2014 and beyond, once federal money is available through the insurance exchanges, switching from employer coverage to the exchanges may benefit both employers and workers in a wide range of income levels.
My guess is that ACA’s backers will reply that this is a good thing — the employer-provided system is broken, etc. — yet of course loudly trumpeting this likely consequence would have complicated the political case for ACA.
Where were the legions of scrupulous fact-checkers from the center and the left when the president claimed that those who liked their coverage would keep their coverage under the reform? My guess is that many of them did their jobs responsibly and well, pushing back against the president’s untenable claims. I’d just love to see examples — please send them my way.