The Campaign Spot

After Pennsylvania, Still a Tough Road Ahead For Obama

Pennsylvania was never going to be ideal territory for Barack Obama. But at this moment, the next few weeks beyond the Keystone State look like rough sledding for him.

April 22, Pennsylvania: Clinton by 16, Clinton by 26, Clinton by 12, Clinton by 13, Clinton by 19…
May 6, Indiana: There’s only one poll done this year, and that was in February, showing Hillary down 15. Keep your eyes peeled for another poll here, as this doesn’t seem like a great state for him, demographically.
May 6, North Carolina: The one poll taken after the Wright controversy has Obama by 1 percent. This should be one of Obama’s best remaining states.
May 13, West Virginia: Only one poll has been conducted recently, by Rasmussen, has Hillary up by 27 percent.
May 20, Kentucky: Nobody’s done Hillary vs. Obama polling here yet, but as the Clinton team brags, “In Kentucky, Hillary’s margin against Sen. McCain is 26 points better than Barack Obama’s.”
May 20, Oregon: This seems like Obama’s kind of state. Oregon AFSCME to broke with its parent union and backed him. A little less than a month ago, Obama was doing better than Hillary in head-to-head matchups with McCain in that state; we’ll have to see if that remains the same.
Right after that 11 state winning streak, it’s possible that Obama will have nearly as tough a slump as Hillary suffered, losing Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina (maybe), West Virginia, and Kentucky.
(Yes, yes, he won Wyoming and Mississippi in there.)
I went bonkers four years ago, trying to slay the urban legend that John Kerry was a great closer. What will Democratic superdelegates do, if confronted with the possibility that Barack Obama is a weak closer?


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