The Campaign Spot

Americans Want an Iran Deal . . . that They Don’t Believe Will Work.

From the first Morning Jolt of the week:

Americans Want an Iran Deal . . . that They Don’t Believe Will Work.

The most interesting numbers in the Quinnipiac national poll this morning:

When asked, “Do you think President Obama is a strong supporter of Israel or not?” the survey found 38 percent of registered voters said yes, 48 percent said no.

Quinnipiac asked, “As you may know a preliminary agreement was reached in which the United States and other countries would lift major economic sanctions against Iran, in exchange for Iran restricting its nuclear program in a way that makes it harder for it to produce nuclear weapons. Do you support or oppose this agreement?” The survey found 58 percent of respondents support, 33 percent oppose.

At first glance, that’s good news for the administration’s proposed Iran deal — er, to the extent the Iranians agree what’s actually in the deal, since they’re denouncing the White House “fact sheet” summarizing the terms.

But the following questions told a different story. The survey asked, “How confident are you that this agreement would prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons; very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident, or not confident at all?” Quinnipiac found only 4 percent say “very confident,” 31 percent say “somewhat confident”, 23 percent “not so confident,” 39 percent say “not confident at all.”

So 58 percent of registered voters want the deal, and 62 percent of registered voters aren’t so confident about it, meaning some chunk of the electorate is both.

What’s more, when the pollster asked, “Do you think that letter will help or hurt White House efforts to peacefully reduce Iran’s nuclear capabilities, or won’t it make a difference?” only 8 percent said “help,” 37 percent said “hurt,” 48 percent said “no difference.”

Unsurprisingly, Americans want to avoid war with Iran. The survey found 13 percent prefer military intervention against Iran’s nuclear program; 77 percent prefer a negotiated settlement to reduce its nuclear potential.

Asked whether they support or oppose legislation that would make any Iran agreement subject to congressional approval, 65 percent said they supported the legislation, 24 percent opposed it.

Most Popular

The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead

The polling aggregator on the website RealClearPolitics shows the margin in polls led by Joe Biden in a blue font and the ones led by Donald Trump in red. For a while, the battleground states have tended to be uniformly blue, except for polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group. If you are a firm believer only in ... Read More

The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead

The polling aggregator on the website RealClearPolitics shows the margin in polls led by Joe Biden in a blue font and the ones led by Donald Trump in red. For a while, the battleground states have tended to be uniformly blue, except for polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group. If you are a firm believer only in ... Read More
Elections

How Trump Might Be Winning

I’m far too dumb to be able to shed any light on polls, but I do know something about celebrity and I think I can guarantee this: If President Trump wins re-election, Robert Cahaly is going to become very famous very quickly. Who is Robert Cahaly? The chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group, the only major ... Read More
Elections

How Trump Might Be Winning

I’m far too dumb to be able to shed any light on polls, but I do know something about celebrity and I think I can guarantee this: If President Trump wins re-election, Robert Cahaly is going to become very famous very quickly. Who is Robert Cahaly? The chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group, the only major ... Read More

Trump: Yes

Editor’s Note: The following is one of three essays, each from a different perspective, in the latest edition of National Review on the question of whether to vote for President Trump. The views below reflect those of the individual author, not of the NR editorial board as a whole. The other two essays can be ... Read More

Trump: Yes

Editor’s Note: The following is one of three essays, each from a different perspective, in the latest edition of National Review on the question of whether to vote for President Trump. The views below reflect those of the individual author, not of the NR editorial board as a whole. The other two essays can be ... Read More