The Campaign Spot

Another Poll of Adults Deserving of Skepticism, This Time in Arkansas

Once again, beware polls of adults. Democrats are sure to be cheery about a poll showing a generic preference for a generic Democrat over a generic Republican in Arkansas, 49 percent to 31 percent.

But the winner isn’t determined by adults picking a generic representative of each party. It’s determined by actual voters picking specific candidates, and for that reason I strongly prefer polls that filter for likely voters.
The poll asked, “If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for for president?” In answer to this open-ended question, 35 percent of respondents named Hillary Clinton. The next most frequently named candidates were Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee at 8 percent each, with Thompson and Obama at 5 percent each. But all this tells us is something we already know – Democrats are a lot more unified around Hillary than Republicans are around any one of their guys.
The only thing that’s a little surprising is Huckabee having such mild numbers in his home state. According to the summary, he left office with a 55 percent approval rating.

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