The Campaign Spot

Another Poll Showing an Incumbent House Democrat in Serious Trouble

Back on my list of 99, I left a strong challenger unmentioned:

Leonard Boswell, Iowa: Boswell has been on most Congress-watchers’ possible-retirement lists for a while, and GOP challenger Jim Gibbons is showing some healthy fundraising. Note that the governor’s race is, at least at this point, set to be a GOP rout, so Boswell can count on no help from the top of the ticket.

Instead, Brad Zaun won, and if a Midwestern-based pollster is to be believed, he’s in exceptionally strong shape:

A Victory Enterprises poll conducted on June 17, 2010 shows State Senator Brad Zaun (R-Urbandale) leading Congressman Leonard Boswell by 9 points. When asked, “If the general election were held today for whom would you vote?” 41% said Zaun, 31.8% said Boswell with 26.8% being undecided.

Also only 28.6% of those surveyed said that Boswell deserves to be re-elected, with 52.3% saying it’s time to give somebody else a chance.

While there is still a large percentage of people who are undecided, this polling doesn’t bode well for Boswell in a year where the Democrat brand has been damaged due to overspending and Obamacare and an anti-incumbent tone. Zaun is well positioned to be extremely competitive.

What should make this polling even more troubling for the Boswell campaign is the demographic breakdown:

The respondents were 43% Democrat, 38% Republican and 19% Independent.

This result is almost too good to be true for the GOP; we’ll have to see if anyone else polls this district.

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