There’s still the better part of a year to go, but prospects for some GOP House seat pickups in New Hampshire look pretty healthy:
According to a new poll by the University of New Hampshire only 35% of likely voters approve of the job [Rep. Carol] Shea-Porter is doing in Congress. 40% disapprove. 24% are neutral or don’t know for sure how they feel. Even worse, all potential Republican candidates for Congress – even the lesser-known candidates – would defeat her if the election were held today. Former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta performs best against Shea-Porter, defeating her in a hypothetical match up 43% -33%.
But at least things look better for Democrats in the state’s other seat. Oh, wait, they don’t.
In the 2nd Congressional District, Smith said name recognition works for Republican Charlie Bass, who has 37 percent of the vote against Democrat Katrina Swett’s 30 percent. Bass also is getting 39 percent support against Ann McLane Kuster’s 28 percent.
Well, that open seat in the 2nd district is from a congressman running for the Senate, so they’ve got their A-team of talent in the statewide race . . . eh, no, never mind, things look bad there, too:
In the Senate race, most eyes are on Democratic U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes versus Republican Kelly Ayotte. The poll shows Hodes with 33 percent support compared to Ayotte’s 41 percent. But Smith said that even more concerning for Democrats is that even though Hodes leads his other contenders, he never breaks 40 percent. Hodes gets 38 percent against Republican Ovid Lamontagne’s 29, 36 percent against Republican Jim Bender’s 27 and 34 percent against Bill Binnie, who trails him by 4 points.
Hey, New Hampshire Democrats can look at the bright side. They’re on pace to enjoy a really early first-round draft pick in 2011.