The Campaign Spot

The Bar for Good News Gets Ever Lower

I made a reference to those always-reassuring internal polls yesterday. I want to give each campaign the benefit of the doubt, but sometimes a campaign showcases results that are really, really surprising:

Team Poizner today announced the latest internal polling showing Meg Whitman’s once 48 point lead down to just 10 points.  The poll proves that Poizner’s messaging is moving numbers fast, while Whitman’s messages have been ineffective. Whitman’s 48 point lead has shrunk to five points in all markets outside of the San Francisco Bay Area. While Whitman has poured millions into television and radio in the San Francisco media market, Poizner has yet to launch his broadcast TV campaign there, but will soon.

Could that be true? Well, perhaps, but the last three polls put Whitman up by 22, by 31, and by 28

The Poizner pollster also found:

The question is worded: Has what you’ve seen, read or heard recently about Meg Whitman/Steve Poizner or her/his campaign for Governor given you a more favorable or less favorable impression of her/him?

Meg’s information flow is 25% more favorable — 49% less favorable, while Steve’s is 30% more favorable — 39% less favorable. While neither candidate’s information flow is positive, it’s clear that voters are moving away from Meg at a higher rate than they are moving from Steve, indicating the likelihood that this race will continue to tighten.

So, just to clarify, the good news for the Poizner campaign is that while voters are hearing mostly negative things about their guy, they’re hearing more negative things about their rival?

Maybe Poizner will shock the world and complete one of the greatest comebacks in political history. But if they don’t, and if it’s not close, we’re going to look at this poll and laugh at them.

Most Popular


Cold Brew’s Insidious Hegemony

Soon, many parts of the United States will be unbearably hot. Texans and Arizonans will be able to bake cookies on their car dashboards; the garbage on the streets of New York will be especially pungent; Washington will not only figuratively be a swamp. And all across America, coffee consumers will turn their ... Read More
National Security & Defense

The Warmonger Canard

Whatever the opposite of a rush to war is — a crawl to peace, maybe — America is in the middle of one. Since May 5, when John Bolton announced the accelerated deployment of the Abraham Lincoln carrier group to the Persian Gulf in response to intelligence of a possible Iranian attack, the press has been aflame ... Read More

The Merit of Merit-Based Immigration

Having chain-migrated his way into the White House and a little bit of political power, Donald Trump’s son-in-law is shopping around an immigration plan. And if you can get past the hilarious juxtaposition of the words “merit-based” and “Jared Kushner,” it’s a pretty good one. As things stand, the ... Read More
NR Webathon

We’ve Had Bill Barr’s Back

One of the more dismaying features of the national political debate lately is how casually and cynically Attorney General Bill Barr has been smeared. He is routinely compared to Roy Cohn on a cable-TV program that prides itself on assembling the most thoughtful and plugged-in political analysts and ... Read More
Film & TV

Game of Thrones: A Father’s Legacy Endures

Warning! If you don't want to read any spoilers from last night's series finale of Game of Thrones, stop reading. Right now. There is a lot to unpack about the Thrones finale, and I fully understand many of the criticisms I read on Twitter and elsewhere. Yes, the show was compressed. Yes, there were moments ... Read More