The Campaign Spot

The Bar for Good News Gets Ever Lower

I made a reference to those always-reassuring internal polls yesterday. I want to give each campaign the benefit of the doubt, but sometimes a campaign showcases results that are really, really surprising:

Team Poizner today announced the latest internal polling showing Meg Whitman’s once 48 point lead down to just 10 points.  The poll proves that Poizner’s messaging is moving numbers fast, while Whitman’s messages have been ineffective. Whitman’s 48 point lead has shrunk to five points in all markets outside of the San Francisco Bay Area. While Whitman has poured millions into television and radio in the San Francisco media market, Poizner has yet to launch his broadcast TV campaign there, but will soon.

Could that be true? Well, perhaps, but the last three polls put Whitman up by 22, by 31, and by 28

The Poizner pollster also found:

The question is worded: Has what you’ve seen, read or heard recently about Meg Whitman/Steve Poizner or her/his campaign for Governor given you a more favorable or less favorable impression of her/him?

Meg’s information flow is 25% more favorable — 49% less favorable, while Steve’s is 30% more favorable — 39% less favorable. While neither candidate’s information flow is positive, it’s clear that voters are moving away from Meg at a higher rate than they are moving from Steve, indicating the likelihood that this race will continue to tighten.

So, just to clarify, the good news for the Poizner campaign is that while voters are hearing mostly negative things about their guy, they’re hearing more negative things about their rival?

Maybe Poizner will shock the world and complete one of the greatest comebacks in political history. But if they don’t, and if it’s not close, we’re going to look at this poll and laugh at them.

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