The Campaign Spot

Checking the Fine Print on That New Virginia Poll

Campaign Spot reader Stephen writes in with a good point about the latest poll in the Virginia statewide races, the one showing Creigh Deeds closing the gap with Republican Bob McDonnell to five percentage points. The poll release also says, “The Clarus poll finds Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) leading Democratic challenger Jody Wagner, 38-32 percent, with 31 percent undecided; Republican Ken Cuccinelli leads Democrat Steve Shannon for Attorney General, 35-30 percent, with 35 percent undecided.”

But other polls taken in those down-ballot races have put the Republicans up by significantly higher margins, 11 to 13 percentage points. So either the thesis issue is hurting Republican candidates who didn’t write it, or this sample is different from other polls. And in at least one fundamental way, it is; as the Right-Wing Liberal notes, this poll is of registered voters, not likely voters, the first non-likely-voter poll since June.


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