Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri has opened a lead outside the margin of error and appears poised to defeat incumbent Congressman Chris Murphy. A four day tracking poll of 911 likely voters in the Fifth Congressional District shows Caligiuri inching past the 50% threshold. He now leads 51.5-43.8 with with just 4.7% undecided. The poll was conducted October 28-31 by the Merriman River Group and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.