The Campaign Spot

Connecticut Democrat John Larson Is Running 20 Points Behind His 2008 Total

A lot of Campaign Spot readers in Connecticut and from that area are doing cartwheels over this poll:

Ann Brickley, Republican candidate for Connecticut’s 1st congressional district, is proving to be a formidable opponent to the Democratic incumbent, U.S. Representative John Larson. Representative Larson has 51.8 percent lead over Brickley’s 44.7 percent, in a poll released today.

The poll, commissioned by ctcapitolreport.com and conducted by the Merriman River Group, surveyed 515 likely voters on October 3-5, 2010 with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. Included in those surveyed are 3.5 percent whom are still unsure of whom they will support in the race.

“In the 1st district, Representative Larson is facing his stiffest challenge yet as he seeks a seventh term and that for many voters, the congressional race in their district this year is a referendum” says the poll’s Executive Director, Matthew Fitch. “While the old saying holds that all politics is local, the poll numbers suggest that for many voters this year, this congressional race is a referendum on President Obama.”

A Democrat leading by 7 doesn’t seem like much to cheer about — until you realize that this is a D+13 district, and that Larson’s share of the vote in past cycles has been 72 percent, 74 percent, 73 percent, 67 percent, 72 percent, and 58 percent. Obama won this district 2 to 1, and John Kerry did almost as well.

Larson probably is safe, but he’s a useful indicator of just how much ground Democrats have lost, and how quickly.

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