We shouldn’t be surprised by a close race in Ohio, but if I were the Rob Portman campaign, I would be a little concerned about this:
43% Fisher (D), 42% Portman (R)
What’s really surprising is that Portman has a nice 45/26 favorable/unfavorable split, better than Fisher’s 48/34, yet he trails a bit.
I don’t worry if the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll puts Portman down. I don’t even worry that much if it’s Quinnipiac. But when Rasmussen finds similar numbers, I think it’s a sign that Democrat Lee Fisher came out of the primary in pretty good shape. I’m not panicking because of a couple of other factors — an improved GOP ground game in the Buckeye State, the high unemployment throughout Ohio, the broad indicators of independents preferring Republicans this year, etc. — but this race will probably be a tougher fight for the GOP than it has appeared for the past few months.