One of my readers, Charlie, takes a look at the early voting numbers from 2008 and compares them to the early voting numbers in 2010, or at least so far.
He finds, “in every state where there is partisan split data for both years, the Republicans have gained in early voting.” The shift in partisan turnout has ranged from Republicans gaining 4.2 percentage points from the 2008 numbers (West Virginia) to 27.4 percentage points from the 2008 numbers (Florida).
(The stunning figure is that 52.8 percent of the more than 778,000 early votes in Florida this year come from registered Republicans.)
Colorado’s early vote is 7.1 percentage points more Republican.
Iowa’s early vote is 10.2 percentage points more Republican.
Louisiana’s early vote is 25.9 percentage points more Republican.
Maine’s early vote is 13.3 percentage points more Republican.
North Carolina’s early vote is 14.9 percentage points more Republican.
In Clark County, Nevada, it is 7.1 percent more Republican; in Washoe County, Nevada, it is 11 percent more Republican.
“The average of these states show that early voting has shifted from a D+16.6 partisan split to a D+1.7 partisan split for a Republican gain of +14.9% since 2008,” Charlie concludes.