The Campaign Spot

Does Deval Patrick’s Slide Foreshadow Barack Obama’s?

A reader offers an intriguing theory behind Biden’s strange we-won’t-be-beloved-in-a-year comments:

Before he managed Barack Obama, David Axelrod’s other big success story was… Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick.

from March 2007: “One month ago, 63-percent of voters approved of the job Patrick was doing, with only 25-percent voicing disapproval. As of this weekend, Patrick’s approval rating has dropped a whopping 20 points, and his disapproval is up 22 points. It coincides with a run of negative news stories about the official Cadillac, the office drapes, the phone call on behalf of a corporate buddy. Disapproval of the governor has risen sharply in every demographic. But the scariest part for Patrick is his collapse among groups who were key campaign supporters. He’s down 19 points among women, 21 points among independents, and an astonishing 23 points among voters 55 or older, all key swing voter groups that rallied strongly behind him last fall. Only 43% who approve of the job Deval Patrick is doing, and 47% who disapprove.”

More recently, Deval Patrick’s approval rating splits 45-49 in SurveyUSA, while Rasmussen puts it at 38 percent.

After debuting with a great deal of hope, optimism, and some would say hype, Patrick’s approval rating has never really recovered. Considering the similarities between Obama’s rhetoric and style of campaigning and Patrick’s, perhaps Biden senses that a letdown is inevitable…

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