The Campaign Spot

Dramatic Shifts in Early Voting in Tennessee, North Carolina

Charles, a Campaign Spot reader in Tennessee, took a look at the totals after the first day of early voting in his state:

All Obama Counties in Tennessee

2008: 36,144

2012: 25,317

Change: -30%

All McCain Counties in Tennessee (except Henry which has not reported 2012EV totals):

2008: 71,846

2012: 94,588

Change: +31.7%

Data for 2008 early vote by county can be found here; data for 2012 early vote by county can be found here.

He concludes:

While Tennessee is not competitive in 2012, these results show a complete shift in voter enthusiasm from 2008 to 2012.  Total voter turnout statewide on day one of early voting was up about 10 percent compared to four years ago, but voter turnout increased 31 percent in McCain counties while it dropped 30 percent in Obama counties.

Meanwhile, Jeff Dobbs takes a similar look at North Carolina, and finds:

Total Votes: 50,674

Dem: 13,887 = 27.4%

Rep: 27,455 = 54.2%

Unaffiliated: 9,255 = 18.3%

Libertarian: 77 = 0.2%

Compare that with 2008:

Dem: 51.4%

Rep: 30.2%

Other: 18.5%

He concludes:

The 2012 numbers are breakouts by registration, not by vote cast (of course, you can’t vote for unaffiliated!). But certainly if some assumptions are made — it appears there has been a complete flip of the parties, at least at this point. But we are in the early part of early voting.


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