One of my key counties to watch tonight is Volusia County, Florida, northeast of Orlando.
In 2008, Obama carried the county, 52.19 percent to 46.53 percent for John McCain.
The early vote in Volusia is concluded. Registered Democrats made up 44.8 percent of the early votes (27,123 votes) and registered Republicans made up 33.3 percent (20,156 votes). Independent/other made up 21.7 percent (13,152 votes.)
Before you panic, back in 2008, the split was much wider in favor of Obama (and the early-vote totals were much higher as well).
Four years ago, registered Democrats made up 52.3 percent of the early voters (35,902 votes) and Republicans made up just 26.8 percent (18,424 votes), with independents making up 20.8 percent (14,304 votes).
In short, the registered-Democrat early vote dropped by 8,779 votes and the registered-Republican early vote increased by 1,732 votes.
Four years ago, the Election Day vote went well enough for John McCain to shift from getting squashed in the early vote by 25 points to losing by 6 points. A similar 19-point shift in this cycle would put Romney ahead by 6 percentage points.