Perhaps the South Carolina Republicans I hang around with are too cocky, but I have a tough time seeing any of their conservative congressional incumbents getting in trouble this year*. Yes, I know the guy who is running against Rep. Joe Wilson raised a ton of money. But Joe Wilson had more primary votes yesterday than any other House member in the state, including House majority whip Jim Clyburn.
For example, I find it almost impossible to imagine a scenario where Jim DeMint loses this year. Some local pollsters recently contended otherwise:
According to our May 18th telephone survey DeMint’s job approval and re-elect numbers are well below the marks of a strong incumbent. Only 53% of all voters currently approve of his job performance while only 48% of all voters are likely to support his re-election. In a head to head question with Democratic challenger Vic Rawl, DeMint gets 50% of the vote to Rawl’s 43%. It is important to note that Rawl has never run for statewide office and has not aired any TV ads during this primary season.
Yeah, well, that Democratic challenger who was supposed to get 43 percent against DeMint just got 41 percent in a two-man primary against a candidate who has raised so little money, he hasn’t filed any papers with the Federal Election Commission. The winner, Alvin Greene, has served honorably, so our hats ought to be tipped to him for that, but it’s rare you see a candidate so dedicated to dealing with the issue of unemployment because he’s currently unemployed. Dave Weigel characterized him as “the kind of opponent candidates dream about . . . a wholly unserious candidate.”
* Yes, in the 4th district, incumbent Rep. Bob Inglis is going to a runoff. But I would note that you don’t trail a primary badly in an R+15 district by being too conservative.
UPDATE: Alvin Greene may have serious criminal charges pending. If you read this in a novel, you would dismiss it as too outlandish.