From the midweek Morning Jolt:
Expect a Lot More ‘Soccer Mom’ Ads in North Carolina
Remember when I showed you the television commercials for Republican Senate candidate Thom Tillis, and asked if they were too soft?
Are the TV ads from Thom Tillis’s Senate campaign in North Carolina too generic or nice? Look them over, and you can see the points Tillis and his team want to emphasize:
• Tillis raised school funding and raised teachers’ pay.
• He’ll work with both parties.
• Hagan voted with Obama 96 percent of the time.
• He’s been a paperboy.
Well, here’s the answer . . .
The most recent Fox News poll in North Carolina has Democrat incumbent Kay Hagan winning among women, 46 percent to 30 percent.
The most recent PPP survey finds, “Hagan continues to have a massive advantage with women at 49 percent to 33 percent.”
And then the most recent Civitas poll, which has Hagan ahead among women, 52 percent to 38 percent.
So there you have it. Thom Tillis is trailing by a handful of points against an incumbent stuck in the mid-40s, and she’s hanging on because of her margin among women. So North Carolina television watchers can continue to hear more about Tillis’s paper route, and his first election as president of the PTA, and more visuals of him at the diner and in the school library.
Not the red meat that conservatives want to see, but then again, Thom Tillis already has most conservatives voting for him — 71 percent of self-identified conservatives in the Civitas poll, 76 percent of self-identified Republicans in the Fox News poll, and 81 percent of the self-identified “very conservative” and 63 percent of the “somewhat conservative” in the PPP poll.
Some of you may be asking, ‘Why isn’t he getting 90 or 100 percent?’ But remember that some portion of self-identified conservatives have completely misidentified themselves. A national Gallup poll found 20 percent of self-identified conservatives say they have a positive view of socialism.
One other thought — as mentioned in last week’s article, North Carolina is one of the most expensive states to run in this cycle (at least one of the most expensive with a competitive Senate race). Yes, the DSCC committed $9 million to helping save Kay Hagan. But if they find themselves needing to triage . . . all that money going to help her might go a lot farther in Arkansas, or Alaska, or Louisiana, or some other cheaper state.