I’m working on my final list of projected winners in the races. (Which races? All of them.)
One of the toughest ones was Renee Ellmers against the North Carolina Strangler, Rep. Bob Etheridge. My head said that a longtime incumbent, with plenty of resources, should be able to hang on by his fingernails, even against a challenger as appealing as Ellmers. My heart said no, she’s too good a candidate, and the district is too conservative to accept a guy who embarrassed himself with bizarre, confrontational behavior.
But now my heart has a poll to cite. Civitas hasn’t released it yet, but the headline is up already:
I’m picking Ellmers.
UPDATE: In case you hadn’t seen it:
Democratic incumbent Congressman Bob Etheridge’s electoral future appears to be in jeopardy as he trails Republican challenger Renee Ellmers by 5 percentage points with less than one week until the election.
According to the poll of 400 registered voters in North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District, Ellmers leads Etheridge 46 percent to 41 percent. Libertarian candidate Tom Rose garners 6 percent of the vote while 7 percent of voters are undecided.
Among voters who say they are definitely voting this year, Ellmers’ lead grows to 49 percent to 40 percent.