The Campaign Spot

First Loughlin. Then Raczkowski. And Now, Scontras.

The Super Wave sure looks possible in the House. My epic-length predictions articles (handled House, Senate, and governors separately) should be going up midday Monday, but throughout the day, each pick that I thought was a little optimistic is greeted by a poll that suggests it’s quite possible.

First John Loughlin, then Rocky Roczkowski, and now . . . Dean Scontras in Maine.

Republican challenger Dean Scontras has moved slightly ahead of incumbent U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree, although they remain in a statistical dead heat in their 1st Congressional District race, according to the fourth and final wave of The Maine Poll.

Scontras, an alternative-energy entrepreneur from Eliot, received 45 percent of respondents’ support compared to 41 percent for Pingree, in the poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday for MaineToday Media by the Portland research firm Critical Insights.

The sample size of 295 likely voters yields a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7% at a 95 percent confidence level. A week ago, Pingree led Scontras by five points, 45-40, which also signaled a statistical tie.

Not a great poll — small sample size, large margin of error. But Pingree hasn’t been above 50 since September.

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